The prospect of war between the United States and China is no longer a distant nightmare but a real and pressing concern. According to experts at the Brookings Institution, China is now considered America’s primary military threat, raising the unsettling possibility of a major conflict between the world’s top two economic and military powers. Such a war would not only threaten global prosperity but could escalate into World War III, putting the survival of the human race at risk.
ACZ Editor: We are presenting the Brooking work, but we believe they are a bit naive in their evaluation that China’s leadership is unlikely to start a war. We are less optimistic.
“Here’s something most Americans may be surprised to hear: military strategists in the United States consider China the nation’s main military worry—with the distinct possibility of a major U.S.-China war in the years to come,” notes Michael E. O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at Brookings. This statement underscores the gravity of the situation. Both nations contribute significantly to the global economy and are heavily interdependent. A war between them would disrupt not only their own economies but also the entire world. However, the worst-case scenario isn’t just economic collapse—it could lead to a global conflict of unprecedented scale.
Amid these dark scenarios, some argue that American military strategists may be overly cautious or even too aggressive in their assessments of China. O’Hanlon suggests that these strategists “tend to be, on average, slightly too hawkish on China,” a nation that, while increasingly assertive, has not engaged in full-scale war since 1979. Unlike nations such as Russia, North Korea, and Iran—often grouped with China as part of a “new axis of evil”—China’s actions are more complex and multifaceted. The country has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty and contributed to global economic growth, showing a general aversion to risky military ventures. Yet, as O’Hanlon warns, “Perhaps military strategists are seeing things too darkly, even as they rightly sound the alarm on some of China’s behaviors as well as its growing capacities and the ensuing risks to American interests.”
Three primary scenarios outline how a war between China and the United States could erupt: a skirmish in the Western Pacific over disputed islands, a full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan, or a Chinese blockade of Taiwan aimed at coercing the island into reunification with the mainland. The first scenario, involving disputes over islets in the South China Sea, is considered the most likely but also the least likely to lead to all-out war. The situation in the South China Sea is tense, with China and the Philippines clashing over territorial claims. As O’Hanlon explains, “The problem is that ownership of even rather small islands can provide land for military bases, while also conferring large territorial seas and exclusive economic zones to the country able to establish possession.” This makes the stakes in these disputes much higher than they might appear on the surface.
The United States, bound by a security treaty with the Philippines, might feel compelled to intervene if the conflict escalates. However, the options available to the U.S., ranging from military engagement to economic sanctions, are fraught with risks. The threshold for American intervention is unclear, and once violence erupts, it can be challenging to control the escalation. As O’Hanlon warns, “Most wars in human history are not accidental, but sometimes big wars do get sparked by small events,” a chilling reminder of how quickly a minor skirmish could spiral into a major conflict.
An attempted Chinese invasion of Taiwan presents an even graver threat. Taiwan, with its strategic importance and deep economic ties to the U.S., could draw the United States into a direct military confrontation with China. The United States has historical bonds with Taiwan and significant economic interests, particularly in the technology sector, where Taiwan plays a crucial role. While the U.S. no longer has a formal treaty obligation to defend Taiwan, the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act suggests that the U.S. could intervene if China attacks. President Joe Biden has hinted at such a possibility on several occasions, though the specifics of such an intervention remain unclear.
The good news about deterring this war is that, for China, it would be a huge roll of the dice. O’Hanlon points out that “amphibious assault has become even harder than during World War II,” due to the proliferation of modern sensors and precision-guided munitions that could effectively target large troop ships. Moreover, the Chinese leadership, while assertive, is not known for taking reckless risks. “There is little to suggest [President Xi Jinping] shares his friend Vladimir Putin’s proclivity to use force for high-risk ventures,” O’Hanlon observes. This cautious approach by China may act as a deterrent to a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.
However, the bad news is that the United States still relies heavily on large, fixed military installations, such as airfields on Okinawa, and big ships like aircraft carriers. These could be vulnerable to Chinese preemptive strikes, making the U.S. military response less effective. O’Hanlon notes that “China may conclude that America does not have enough” forces to effectively counter an invasion, leading Beijing to believe in a rapid victory. This miscalculation could prove disastrous, as it might encourage China to attempt an invasion despite the risks.
When war games and simulations are carried out to gauge how these scenarios might play out, the results are mixed. Some suggest the U.S. might successfully defend Taiwan, but at a great cost in terms of lives and military assets. Other simulations predict Chinese victories under certain conditions. O’Hanlon summarizes his views in three main points: “This is an extremely risky scenario for China. We can make it even riskier with the right kinds of additional military investments by Taiwan and the United States… Even if China loses at first, we are still in trouble.”
The third scenario, a blockade of Taiwan, might be China’s most credible and effective strategy. This approach would target Taiwan’s economy, attempting to coerce the island into submission without provoking a full-scale war. The U.S. would face significant challenges in countering such a blockade. O’Hanlon warns that this scenario is “very hard for the United States to counter,” and even if the U.S. succeeds, the conflict could easily escalate and expand geographically. A blockade would allow China to gradually increase pressure on Taiwan while avoiding the risks of an all-out invasion. It could also complicate the U.S. response, as the blockade might not initially provoke a strong international reaction, allowing China to tighten its grip on Taiwan over time.
Of course, the danger doesn’t end with a successful counter to the blockade. O’Hanlon warns that “whichever side loses round one may try again.” The conflict could drag on, with both sides escalating their efforts and potentially resorting to nuclear threats. “There is little reason to think this scenario could be contained,” O’Hanlon cautions, highlighting the risk that a U.S.-China war could spread beyond Taiwan and involve other nations, possibly escalating into a global conflict.
To prevent this dire outcome, the United States must strengthen its military capabilities and work closely with its allies. Integrated deterrence, a strategy that combines military readiness with economic resilience, is crucial. O’Hanlon emphasizes the importance of this approach, noting that it involves “working with allies to ensure that they too send a strong message of willingness to resist any Chinese attack—not only with military responses but also with economic preparations.” However, deterrence alone is not enough. Crisis management and, in some cases, compromise will be essential to avoiding a conflict that could become the greatest tragedy in human history.
In the end, while the possibility of a U.S.-China war is alarming, it is not inevitable. By understanding the risks and preparing accordingly, the U.S. and its allies can work to prevent such a conflict and maintain peace in a fragile and complex world. As O’Hanlon concludes, “The irreducible objective must be to prevent a war that might not prove controllable—and that could become the greatest tragedy in the history of the human race.”
ACZ Editor: We tend to believe that China hesitates because it is unsure of its military (serious technical, management and corruption problems) and some questionable loyalties from some of its generals. We have seen massive purges of the military in recent months to remedy this.