As Xi Jinping nears the twilight of his political life, China faces a moment of profound uncertainty. Xi has reshaped the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) around his personal authority, elevated loyalists, and purged rivals. His succession is not just a domestic matter but a global concern. According to Tyler Jost and Daniel C. Mattingly, history shows that transitions in Chinese autocracy rarely go smoothly, and the next chapter could define China’s political and economic trajectory—and its place in the world.

Here are five of the most important scenarios that experts say could unfold when Xi eventually steps aside.

1. The Hua Guofeng Scenario: A Weak Successor Gets Sidelined

One likely outcome, drawn from Mao Zedong’s failed handoff to Hua Guofeng in 1976, is that Xi selects a loyal but unthreatening figure to protect his legacy. Hua lacked a power base and was swiftly undermined by Deng Xiaoping and the military elite. A similar scenario today would see Xi choose someone like Cai Qi or Ding Xuexiang, whose ties to Xi run deep but who lack broader authority. According to Jost and Mattingly, without backing from the People’s Liberation Army, such a successor could be quickly challenged, resulting in factional infighting and a potential power vacuum. This would open the door to military elites or sidelined reformers to seize control, possibly steering the country in an unexpected direction. Outsiders fear this scenario could destabilize policymaking and heighten international tensions during a leadership void.

2. The Deng Xiaoping Model: A Shadow Ruler Guides a New Face

Xi may attempt to emulate Deng Xiaoping, who stepped back from formal titles while continuing to pull the strings behind the scenes. In this arrangement, Xi could install a younger leader such as Chen Jining but remain China’s dominant voice from retirement. Chun Han Wong notes that this model would let Xi safeguard his policy legacy, including his assertive foreign policy and internal controls, while avoiding the dangers of losing power outright. However, this strategy hinges on Xi maintaining both health and authority after stepping down. If Xi’s informal influence wanes or if his successor diverges from his agenda, the CCP could see policy confusion and a quiet erosion of centralized control. Still, this model offers the most stable path forward and may reassure foreign governments that no radical policy shifts are imminent.

3. A Succession Crisis: Power Struggle Breaks into the Open

If Xi dies or is forced out without naming a successor, China could enter a volatile period of elite infighting. Neil Thomas argues that the party’s rules offer little clarity on emergency succession, and rival factions tied to Xi’s past in Fujian and Zhejiang could fight for dominance. Jost and Mattingly describe how even retired leaders or military brass could influence the outcome. Without a clear heir, a scramble could erupt among Politburo and military leaders, possibly triggering coups, defections, or even mass arrests. This scenario could see China temporarily revert to a more collective leadership, or in a worst case, a full political breakdown. Foreign analysts worry this would destabilize the economy and increase the risk of military provocations to distract from internal disunity.

4. The Gorbachev Reversal: A Reformer Rises from the Wings

History shows that unexpected reformers can emerge during leadership transitions. Deng Xiaoping was sidelined before he came to power in 1978 and radically shifted China’s economic path. Some speculate that a new leader, perhaps someone outside the current Standing Committee like Hu Chunhua or even a dark horse from the provincial ranks, could embrace market reforms and open society. Mattingly suggests the current elite recognizes that Xi’s state-heavy policies are harming growth. If such a figure were to emerge, he might use Xi’s rhetoric—such as “national rejuvenation”—to mask policy shifts toward economic liberalization or political temperance. This scenario offers the best-case outcome for the West and business leaders, but it depends on both the collapse of Xi’s grip and the political skills of a successor willing to push back against entrenched hardliners.

5. Militarized Continuity: A Hawkish Leader Tightens Control

A fifth possibility is that Xi’s successor takes power and doubles down on nationalism and authoritarianism. Torigian’s research shows that war has been used in China to consolidate new leadership. Xi’s push to prepare the PLA for conflict over Taiwan by 2027 has observers like Jost and Mattingly warning that a successor may feel pressure to prove strength through aggressive moves—perhaps in the South China Sea or with India. The purging of top generals and the sidelining of moderates like Li Qiang suggest that Xi is trying to preempt dissent and ensure his successor continues his militaristic agenda. Former journalist Zhao Lanjian argues that military readiness signals war planning, not retreat. In this case, rather than softening, China’s leadership could become more volatile, more insular, and more aggressive—especially if the new leader lacks popular legitimacy and needs military backing to survive.

Outside Perspectives: Uncertainty Is the Only Constant

Analysts from across the spectrum—from Neil Thomas to Julian Gewirtz—agree on one thing: China’s future after Xi is impossible to predict with certainty. Jost and Mattingly note that the CCP lacks institutional checks on power, making succession a high-risk event. Even Western intelligence services, such as the CIA, have begun targeting Chinese elites, hoping to exploit internal dissent. But foreign governments must tread carefully. Intervening in China’s transition could backfire and reinforce nationalist narratives within the party. As Gewirtz warns, the danger lies in assuming historical determinism. China could become more liberal, more oppressive, or simply more fragmented.

In the end, the post-Xi era may not bring a single defining moment, but rather a slow, messy reshuffling of power. Every scenario presents complications—and none guarantees stability. For the world’s second-largest economy, that uncertainty is now the most important fact of all.

ACZ Editor: A certain amount of chaos is almost a certainly. Some have speculated that China would break apart that regional generals would assert control (and apparently they hate each other). But other than loose nukes looking for a home, a weaker, less organized, less single-minded China can’t be all bad for the West.