In recent developments, China and India, two of the world’s most populous nations, are moving toward a closer economic and diplomatic partnership. This growing alignment presents a significant challenge to U.S. foreign policy, which has traditionally sought to position India as a democratic counterweight to China’s influence in Asia. However, recent actions and statements by President Joe Biden appear to be undermining this strategy, raising concerns about the future of U.S. alliances in the region.
A Surprising Shift in Sino-Indian Relations
India’s decision to potentially open up to Chinese direct investment marks a significant shift in its foreign policy. This move, backed by India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, aims to boost India’s global exports, a strategy that includes integrating more deeply into China’s supply chain. As India’s Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran noted, “focusing on FDI from China seems more promising for boosting India’s exports to the US, similar to how East Asian economies did in the past.”
This policy change follows a series of high-level diplomatic engagements, including a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Reports suggest Modi sought Russian assistance in resolving India’s longstanding border disputes with China. Such a move indicates a strategic shift that could undermine the U.S.’s efforts to rally Asian countries against China.
Biden’s Diplomatic Stumbles
Amid these delicate diplomatic maneuvers, President Joe Biden’s recent comments have added tension. During a campaign event, Biden labeled India, along with Japan, China, and Russia, as “xenophobic,” arguing that these countries “don’t want immigrants.” This remark was widely criticized, including by Elbridge Colby, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense, who noted that India and Japan “are two of our very stoutest and important allies” and deserve to be spoken to with respect.
The backlash in India has been particularly strong, as the country experiences a nationalist resurgence under Modi’s leadership. Sadanand Dhume, a South Asia expert at the American Enterprise Institute, warned that Biden’s comments “will confirm the idea among a section of Indians that Mr. Biden is not friendly to India.”
Adding to the strain, Biden’s decision not to attend a Quad meeting in India—an important strategic forum including the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia—raises questions about the U.S.’s commitment to its alliances in the region. This absence is especially problematic as the Quad aims to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.
The Risks of Alienating India
For the U.S., the stakes are high. India is not only the world’s largest democracy but also a key player in the region’s security architecture. The U.S. has long viewed India as a crucial partner in balancing China’s rise. Yet, Biden’s recent actions and comments risk alienating India at a critical juncture.
China and India’s growing economic interdependence is underscored by their trade relationships. India’s imports from China have surged since the COVID-19 pandemic, and India’s exports to the U.S. have risen in tandem. This trend reflects a broader shift, as China’s economic policies increasingly attract Asian countries into its orbit.
Moreover, both China and India have recognized the mutual benefits of stabilizing their relationship. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar have emphasized the need for “strong guidance” to manage their border disputes and promote peaceful coexistence. They have also acknowledged that their bilateral relationship has broader implications for regional stability and global governance.
A Call for Strategic Recalibration
As India and China inch closer, the U.S. faces a critical decision: continue with a potentially alienating approach or recalibrate its strategy to reinforce alliances in Asia. The Biden administration’s recent actions suggest a lack of sensitivity to India’s domestic and international challenges, which could drive India further into China’s sphere of influence.
The U.S. must recognize India’s strategic importance and address its concerns respectfully and constructively. This means not only engaging India on shared democratic values but also being mindful of India’s unique geopolitical position and domestic priorities. Bidens’ bungling has resulted in a potentially significant shift in the global balance of power.
The warming relationship between China and India, coupled with recent U.S. diplomatic missteps, underscores the need for a strong effort to fix our relationships, perhaps with someone new who understands the value of allies. The U.S. cannot afford to take its allies for granted, especially in light of a growing Chinese trade bloc that is intended to become a Chinese hegemony.