Finland’s defence minister Antti Häkkänen argues that defeating Russia in Ukraine is essential to restraining China in the Indo-Pacific. His warning was reported by Tom McIlroy for Guardian Australia after an interview in Helsinki, and it frames the war as a global test of democratic resolve that Beijing is closely observing.
What Finland is saying
Häkkänen’s message is blunt. “China is watching. Does the West have a muscle and resilience, when the autocrats and dictators think they can wage war for another year, and the democratic countries will become fed up?” He insists the answer must be no. He says the West needs to show even stronger support, not only for Ukraine but against violence and war more broadly, because that signal will be read in the Indo-Pacific. He also praised U.S. sanctions on two Russian oil companies as a major sign of resolve against Vladimir Putin’s three-year war, and outlined a three-pillar approach to end the conflict: tougher sanctions on Russia’s economy and energy exports, stronger military assistance to Ukraine, and permission to use long-range weapons to destroy factories producing drones and missiles.
The China connection to Russia’s war
Häkkänen says Russia cannot sustain its current war by itself and that China is helping “a great deal” with money from energy purchases, military components, and industrial cooperation. He warns that if conflict breaks out in the Indo-Pacific, Russia will likely be involved by supporting China in some way. This links Europe’s security directly to Asian stability. Finland’s assessment lines up with a broader pattern of Chinese positions and actions since 2022, including repeated statements that oppose Western sanctions and emphasize a political settlement while maintaining deep economic ties with Moscow.
From Helsinki’s perspective, a clear defeat for Russia is necessary to deter future aggression and to signal to Beijing that coercion does not pay. Häkkänen argues wavering would embolden China. He believes democratic allies must stay the course with sanctions and military aid and enable Ukraine to strike key enablers of Russia’s war machine. While there has been pressure on Washington to allow Tomahawk cruise missiles for strikes inside Russia, the United States has so far resisted on grounds of complexity and training time. Even so, Häkkänen sees momentum in Europe, noting recent steps to increase support for Kyiv and invest in defence.
How linked are China and Russia
The record since 2022 shows a tightening relationship. China has repeatedly framed its stance as objective and geared toward peace talks, yet it has continued extensive trade with Russia and opposed many Western sanctions. Reports and official exchanges describe Chinese entities providing dual-use goods and industrial inputs that help Russia’s defence sector. Senior Chinese officials have also signaled strategic aims that align with Moscow’s interests, including suggestions that a Russian loss would shift U.S. focus toward China. That calculus underscores why Beijing benefits from a prolonged conflict and why Finland says the West’s endurance matters.
China has become a critical outlet for Russian energy and a major supplier of goods that fill gaps left by Western firms. Trade growth has helped keep Russia’s economy afloat despite sanctions. Chinese purchases of oil and gas provide revenue for Moscow. Chinese brands have expanded in Russian consumer markets, including autos. Financial coordination has deepened in forums such as BRICS, where alternatives to dollar-based settlement have been promoted. For Finland, each of these threads ties European security to economic flows that strengthen Russia’s capacity to fight.
Beyond commerce, Beijing and Moscow have showcased military cooperation and alignment. Joint drills and patrols have expanded in scope, including naval and air defence exercises and coordination in strategic regions. Public signals and diplomatic readouts highlight regular consultations between senior officials. While China denies supplying lethal weapons, Ukraine and Western officials have pointed to components, chemicals, and dual-use technologies flowing to Russia’s defence industry. This steady cooperation forms the backdrop to Häkkänen’s warning that deterrence in Europe and Asia is now interconnected.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, China has balanced public calls for talks with practical ties to Moscow. It has criticized Western sanctions, promoted initiatives for dialogue with partners such as Brazil, and engaged in high-level meetings with both Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, it has maintained or expanded energy purchases and trade. These moves have allowed Russia to soften the blow of international pressure while signaling that Beijing prefers an outcome that does not leave Moscow weakened.
Finland’s vantage point
Finland shares a 1,300-kilometre border with Russia and sees Putin’s regime as a permanent security threat. It joined NATO in 2023 and has worked to tighten ties with key partners, including the United States and Australia. Häkkänen says Xi Jinping should take note of the resolve shown by a global democratic alliance that includes a “coalition of the willing.” He also underscores Australia’s “tremendous” role as a leading non-NATO supporter of Ukraine and points to growing Finnish engagement with Australia in defence industry and space.
China considers Taiwan part of its territory and is building capabilities that some experts say could enable a move by 2027. Increased military activity in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea raises the risk of crisis. Häkkänen argues that how the Ukraine war ends will influence the calculations in Beijing. If Russia’s invasion fails decisively, it strengthens the norm against conquest and reduces the incentive for military gambles in Asia. If the West tires and settles for a frozen conflict on Moscow’s terms, it sends the opposite signal.
Finland’s prescription is to keep pressure on Russia’s economy, accelerate and expand military aid, and permit the destruction of Russia’s drone and missile production infrastructure with long-range strikes. While he criticizes laggards, Häkkänen is cautiously optimistic, noting recent European moves to step up support and rebuild defence capacity. He believes sustained cooperation can deliver peace on terms that deter future aggression and reassure partners from Europe to the Pacific. The message is simple. To keep the Indo-Pacific stable, the democracies must help Ukraine win.
ACZ Editor: While Finland certainly has a point, it is doubtful that Ukraine will come out unscathed. In our opinion, Russia has already claimed what it wanted to claim, i.e. Russian speaking territory and a secure hold on the Crimea, and is biding its time while the West figures out how to deal with it. Unless Ukraine starts to do real damage, Putin has little to lose in his position.
Our recent article about how Ukraine has made a credible move toward destroying Russia’s oil infrastructure may be a game changer, but Russia may not respond in a way that we believe are its rational choices. Putin is a clever man.