The abrupt decision by the Trump administration to scale back and restructure the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has sent shockwaves through global development circles. While American aid workers pack up their offices, China is already making moves to step in, offering financial assistance to countries that once relied on U.S. support. It’s an aggressive play—one that was expected—but the bigger question remains: will Washington allow Beijing to succeed in poaching long-standing American alliances?

A Strategic Play for Influence

From Nepal to Colombia, the Chinese government has wasted no time reassuring former USAID beneficiaries that Beijing is prepared to fill the gap. Reports from the Annapurna Express indicate that Chinese officials have already signaled to Nepal’s leadership their willingness to provide development funding. Similarly, the Cook Islands, a crucial player in the Indo-Pacific, is bracing for China’s approach as USAID winds down its programs. In Latin America, Colombia—having received $385 million in U.S. aid in 2024—has already seen Chinese interest in funding non-governmental organizations left in the lurch by Washington’s withdrawal.

China’s opportunism isn’t limited to economic aid. In Africa, Beijing is aggressively expanding its space partnerships, funding satellite and ground station development in over 23 countries. The Egyptian Space Agency, for example, has benefitted from Chinese-built facilities and satellite technology, giving Beijing access to valuable surveillance data while strengthening its geopolitical ties. “China has democratized space to enhance its authoritarian capabilities … and it’s doing so very effectively,” said Nicholas Eftimiades, a former U.S. intelligence officer specializing in Chinese espionage operations.

Why It’s Working

China’s approach to foreign aid differs significantly from the U.S. model. Rather than focusing on humanitarian programs, democratic governance, and economic reform, Beijing prioritizes infrastructure projects, technological investment, and elite partnerships that create long-term dependencies. This has proven effective in countries where governments seek immediate economic benefits without the political conditions often attached to U.S. assistance.

Cambodia provides a clear example. After USAID funding for landmine clearance was halted, China swiftly stepped in with a $4.4 million grant to continue demining operations. In the Cook Islands, where New Zealand and the U.S. traditionally held sway, Prime Minister Mark Brown is already considering a visit to Beijing to sign cooperation agreements.

China’s space ambitions are also playing a role in its soft power expansion. Beijing has inked nearly two dozen agreements with African nations, financing satellite programs and ground stations. In Egypt, the government’s first domestically assembled satellite, MisrSat-2, was largely built with Chinese components and technical assistance. According to Egyptian officials, the project represents a major step forward for the country’s space program, but analysts note that it also grants Beijing a foothold in an increasingly important sector.

In some regions, China doesn’t even need to increase spending—merely maintaining its aid levels makes it the only game in town. As Samantha Custer from the AidData research group put it, “China can win the day by not even doing anything. You can’t partner with somebody who’s not there.”

A “Self-Inflicted Wound” for the U.S.?

Analysts from across the political spectrum are warning that the U.S. aid freeze is a strategic blunder that hands China an easy win. The decision to pause USAID funding—exempting only emergency food assistance and military aid to Israel and Egypt—immediately disrupted countless development programs worldwide. The Trump administration’s broader plan to merge USAID into the State Department and slash its workforce from 10,000 to fewer than 300 has only deepened concerns about America’s retreat from global leadership.

“This is a serious self-inflicted wound,” said J. Brian Atwood, a former USAID administrator. “China has been criticizing USAID programs for years, trying to undermine their credibility. Now, they don’t even have to make the case—the U.S. is doing it for them.”

Republican voices are also sounding the alarm. Michael Sobolik, a China analyst at the Hudson Institute, acknowledged that USAID had its inefficiencies but cautioned against abandoning it altogether. “Sure, USAID was doing some highly questionable stuff that’s worthy of review. But don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. Beijing is hoping we do exactly that.”

Democrats on the House Select China Committee, led by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), are already drafting strategies to hammer the administration on this issue. A leaked internal memo reads, “When the Chinese Communist Party is aggressively investing abroad, rerouting supply chains, and buying authoritarian favor through elite capture, the United States must double down on USAID’s work, not stifle it.”

However, within the Republican-led government, there is little appetite for defending the agency. The committee’s official response to inquiries about USAID’s future was a noncommittal statement: “We have full trust in Secretary Rubio’s ability to effectively handle critical human rights and development issues.”

Will Washington Push Back?

If China believes the U.S. will stand idly by as it extends its influence, it may be in for a rude awakening. Washington still has tools at its disposal, including military and economic leverage, to counter Beijing’s advances. The question is whether the Trump administration will shift its stance before too much ground is lost.

The Pentagon has already expressed concerns about China’s growing presence in Africa’s space industry. Officials warn that China’s satellite investments could have military applications, potentially enhancing Beijing’s ability to track U.S. movements. “The U.S. still has by far the biggest space program in the world,” said Stephen Whiting, commander of the U.S. Space Command, “but China’s rapid advancements demand close attention.”

Meanwhile, China’s broader development efforts are winning over governments that have long relied on U.S. aid. As a senior Ethiopian space official put it, “The U.S. had decades to help Africa develop their space programs, but they never did. Now, China is here, and they’re getting things done.”

The Bottom Line

China is doing exactly what many expected—seizing on America’s retreat to expand its geopolitical reach. The U.S. has spent decades using foreign aid as a tool to maintain influence and counter authoritarian regimes. But with USAID in freefall, Beijing is stepping in, offering money with fewer strings attached and expanding its soft power in the process.

The question is no longer whether China will try to replace the U.S. in key regions—it’s whether the U.S. will let them. With Washington’s global credibility at stake, how long before the White House decides to fight back?