On September 15, 2024, China introduced significant new restrictions on the export of key minerals, with antimony being a primary focus. These minerals are critical to the U.S. defense industry and are used in a wide range of military technologies, from night-vision goggles to nuclear weapons. The U.S. remains highly dependent on China for its supply of these materials, and this move threatens to disrupt supply chains, drive up costs, and expose the vulnerabilities of American industry and national security.
The Importance of Antimony: A Little-Known but Essential Mineral
Antimony is not a household name, but its importance to U.S. national security cannot be overstated. It is a key component in military equipment such as infrared missiles, bullets, armor-piercing ammunition, and precision optics. It also plays a role in various civilian technologies, including batteries and solar panels. Antimony is particularly important in defense applications due to its use in flame retardants, helping protect equipment in high-heat conditions.
According to U.S. Geological Survey data, the U.S. imported 22,000 tons of antimony in 2023, with China supplying 63% of that amount. In fact, China is the largest producer of antimony globally, accounting for nearly half of the world’s total output. The U.S. has no domestic production of antimony, which leaves it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, especially when geopolitical tensions rise.
China’s New Restrictions: What Has Changed?
China’s new export controls, which took effect on September 15, are part of a broader strategy to assert control over global supply chains for critical minerals. These restrictions apply to six antimony-related products, including antimony ore, metals, and oxide. Exporters must now obtain a special license from the Chinese government to ship these materials abroad—a process that could take months or be denied outright.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce framed these restrictions as necessary to “safeguard national security and interests” and to prevent the use of Chinese materials in ways that could “undermine China’s national sovereignty, security, and development interests.” While the exact nature of the restrictions is still unfolding, they echo previous moves by China to curb exports of other critical minerals, such as gallium, germanium, and rare earth elements. This isn’t the first time China has used its control of essential resources as leverage in geopolitical disputes, and it likely won’t be the last.
The Impact on the U.S. Defense Industry
The U.S. defense industry is one of the sectors most at risk from these new restrictions. The military depends on antimony for the production of advanced technologies used in warfare. For example, antimony is critical for producing night-vision goggles, infrared sensors, and precision-guided munitions. These technologies are not just vital for current military operations, but they are also key to maintaining the U.S. military’s technological edge.
The U.S. Department of Defense has long recognized antimony’s strategic importance. Representative Rob Wittman (R-Va.), who leads a working group on critical minerals policy, noted, “China’s new restrictions on antimony—which is used in everything from night vision goggles to nuclear weapons to tanks—will require exporters to apply for certain licenses that the Chinese Communist Party could delay or refuse outright.” This potential delay could lead to significant bottlenecks in the production of military equipment.
Rob Greenway, a former National Security Council official, also emphasized the growing threat posed by U.S. reliance on foreign minerals. “We have massive vulnerabilities, and our regulatory structures have not in any way kept pace with that,” he said, highlighting the shift from being a net exporter of critical materials during the Cold War to now being highly dependent on imports, especially from China.
Rising Costs and Supply Chain Disruptions
The immediate effect of China’s restrictions will likely be a surge in the price of antimony. Prices have already skyrocketed this year, reaching a record $22,750 per ton, and they are expected to rise further. Some experts predict that antimony could hit $30,000 per ton as demand outpaces supply and companies scramble to stockpile the mineral. This price hike will increase costs for both the U.S. defense industry and civilian sectors that rely on antimony.
In addition to rising costs, supply chain disruptions are another looming challenge. The process of applying for export licenses from China is notoriously slow, with approvals often taking months. For an industry like defense, which operates on tight schedules and relies on a steady flow of materials, these delays could create significant production bottlenecks. This has sparked concerns that some military projects may be delayed, particularly those involving cutting-edge technologies.
Former senior Commerce Department official Nazak Nikakhtar warned about the broader economic implications of these restrictions. “It really, truly has the ability to crater the U.S. economy,” Nikakhtar said. She highlighted how even non-military sectors, such as energy and manufacturing, could feel the effects of supply shortages in critical minerals like antimony and other super-hard materials.
Searching for Alternatives: Can the U.S. Reduce Dependency?
Given China’s dominance in antimony production, the U.S. is scrambling to find alternative sources. One company, Perpetua Resources, has proposed plans to resume domestic antimony production at the Stibnite Gold Mine in Idaho. Backed by the Pentagon and the U.S. Export-Import Bank, Perpetua aims to produce antimony for military applications, including missile and munitions systems. However, this project has faced opposition from environmental groups, and production is not expected to begin until 2028, at the earliest.
“We are looking at things that we can do during construction to get antimony out the door sooner for some of these strategic needs,” said Jon Cherry, Perpetua’s CEO. The company is working closely with the U.S. Department of Defense to accelerate production, but it remains unclear if they can meet the urgent demand caused by China’s restrictions.
In the short term, the U.S. may need to turn to other global producers, such as Tajikistan, Belgium, and Bolivia. However, none of these countries can match China’s production capacity. Tajikistan, for example, produced 25% of the world’s antimony in 2023, but much of this output was exported to China for refining. The U.S. will likely need to invest heavily in securing supply agreements with these nations while also building up its own refining infrastructure.
The Bigger Geopolitical Picture
China’s antimony restrictions are not just about economics—they are a clear demonstration of the country’s geopolitical strategy. By controlling the flow of critical minerals, China gains leverage over its rivals, particularly the U.S. In recent years, China has also imposed restrictions on gallium, germanium, and rare earth elements, all of which are essential for advanced technologies such as semiconductors and electric vehicles.
This growing trend of mineral export controls underscores the importance of diversifying supply chains away from China. The U.S. and its allies must work together to secure alternative sources of critical minerals, whether through new mining operations, recycling initiatives, or partnerships with other nations. As Representative Wittman pointed out, “This is why we must diversify our critical mineral supply chains away from China.”
China’s new antimony restrictions are a wake-up call for the U.S. The country’s reliance on Chinese imports for critical minerals poses a significant risk to national security and economic stability. To mitigate this risk, the U.S. must take urgent action to diversify its supply chains, invest in domestic production, and develop recycling technologies. While China’s restrictions are likely to cause short-term disruptions and price increases, they also present an opportunity for the U.S. to rethink its approach to critical mineral sourcing.
We have seen China’s plans unfold for a number of years, yet the U.S. has been remarkably slow in mitigating the risks of a China dominated minerals market. Instead, we have a knee-jerk reaction to each new restriction which could leave us vulnerable.