Japan is working to stabilize its relationship with China, but Beijing appears unwilling to de-escalate. Reporting from Credit Asian Military Review, along with supporting coverage from AP, China Daily, and other outlets, shows a pattern of military pressure, economic retaliation, and political intimidation aimed at Japan. While Tokyo continues to signal restraint and dialogue, China is using the crisis to assert dominance, test alliances, and raise regional tension.
The crisis intensified in November after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could become a survival-threatening situation for Japan. Under Japanese law, such a scenario could justify military action to protect the homeland. China reacted sharply, accusing Japan of interfering in its internal affairs and demanding a full retraction of her remarks. One Chinese diplomat even appeared to issue a personal threat against Takaichi.
Japan’s Push for Calm
Since the remarks, Japan has consistently sought to lower tensions. Takaichi has emphasized that China remains an important neighbor and has called for a return to stable relations, echoing commitments made during her earlier meeting with Xi Jinping at the APEC summit. Japan has lodged formal protests instead of escalating, framed incidents as regrettable rather than hostile, and has focused on diplomacy with both China and regional partners.
Japan has also avoided economic retaliation, choosing instead to monitor Chinese actions and appeal to international norms. Its outreach to South Korea and other allies reflects an effort to build stability rather than confrontation.
China has rejected Japan’s conciliatory tone and demanded complete political submission. Chinese officials accused Japan of pretending to cooperate while secretly undermining China. This rhetoric was followed by tangible actions designed to punish and intimidate.
Military
One of the most dangerous incidents occurred when a Chinese fighter jet locked its radar onto Japanese aircraft near Okinawa. Radar lock-ons are commonly understood as a precursor to weapons fire and are considered highly provocative. Japan formally protested and requested safeguards to prevent recurrence, while the United States publicly condemned China’s behavior. Beijing responded by warning that Japan’s allies should not be misled by Tokyo.
China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning was also involved in regional activity during this period, reinforcing the sense of military pressure.
Economic
China has used economic coercion as a pressure tool. It issued travel advisories discouraging Chinese citizens from visiting Japan and canceled all flights on 49 routes between the two countries for February. Chinese airlines cited foreign ministry warnings and extended refund and rebooking policies, signaling that the disruption is politically driven rather than commercial.
China also delayed Japanese food and beverage exports, postponed the release of Japanese films, and reinstated a ban on Japanese seafood imports. Japanese officials confirmed that shipments of sake and processed foods were being held up in Chinese customs.
Export controls have added further strain. China imposed restrictions on dual-use goods and rare earth materials, which are critical to Japanese industries. About 70 percent of Japan’s rare earth imports come from China, making the move particularly disruptive.
China sanctioned a former chief of staff of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces for advising Taiwan, freezing his assets and banning cooperation with Chinese entities. This move reinforced Beijing’s insistence on enforcing its One China principle beyond its borders.
Historical and Psychological Pressure
China revived historical grievances to inflame sentiment. During a memorial event for the Nanjing Massacre, Chinese military social media posted an image depicting a bloody sword beheading a skeleton wearing a Japanese military cap. The message referenced centuries of hatred and suffering, clearly aimed at hardening public attitudes toward Japan.
China also ended decades of panda diplomacy by recalling its pandas from Tokyo with no replacements planned, leaving Japan without pandas for the first time in over 50 years.
China appears to be using the crisis to test Japan’s resolve, pressure the U.S.-Japan alliance, and drive wedges between regional partners. By courting South Korea while isolating Japan, Beijing is attempting to reshape regional alignments and portray Tokyo as reckless and destabilizing.
Chinese state media has even questioned Japan’s sovereignty over parts of the Ryukyu Island Chain, including Okinawa and Yonaguni, signaling a willingness to challenge long-settled boundaries.
Japan’s Defensive Response
Despite its calm rhetoric, Japan has not backed down on security. It accelerated plans to deploy missile defenses to Yonaguni Island near Taiwan to protect its southwestern islands. China labeled the move extremely dangerous and criticized what analysts describe as Japan’s emerging missile network across the Ryukyu chain.
Japan continues to strengthen ties with the United States and other partners while avoiding inflammatory language.
The outlook points to sustained or rising tension. China shows little interest in compromise and continues to escalate through calibrated pressure. Japan remains cautious but increasingly resolute. If China persists with coercion, the likely outcome is a more militarily prepared Japan, a tighter U.S.-Japan alliance, and broader international support for Tokyo.
The region’s security environment will remain fragile. Close military encounters, trade disruptions, and diplomatic maneuvering raise the risk of miscalculation. While Japan seeks calm, the evidence suggests China currently sees tension as an advantage rather than a problem.
Restraint remains available to Beijing, but only if it chooses to take it.
ACZ Editor: As much as China has reason to cite Nanjing and other brutalities from World War II, that is four generations past. This resurgence of an issue that pre-dates Mao and the current Chinese government is propaganda for today’s purposes, a pretended sensitivity for political purposes.
China has a reason for creating this distance, but it might be a while before we know what it is.