As tensions rise across the Taiwan Strait, American and Taiwanese experts are warning that China may be preparing a massive information warfare campaign capable of rivaling or even overpowering traditional U.S. influence during a future conflict. Analysts say Beijing is carefully studying recent wars in Ukraine and Iran while building a sophisticated propaganda network designed to weaken Taiwan psychologically, divide its society, and convince citizens that resistance against China is hopeless.

Rather than relying only on missiles and warships, China increasingly appears focused on controlling narratives, manipulating social media, and shaping public opinion before a military confrontation ever begins.

Retired U.S. Lieutenant General S. Clinton Hinote warned that Beijing has likely been impressed by Iran’s propaganda operations during the recent Middle East conflict and may attempt similar tactics against Taiwan and the United States. “That’s coming,” Hinote said during a Washington discussion hosted by the Special Competitive Studies Project think tank. He added, “There’s this struggle for what is true, what is right, and it seems like there’s so much disinformation out there right now. I worry a lot that as a people, we, being the United States, aren’t very hardened … for what’s coming.”

According to Hinote, China is expected to weaponize largely unregulated Western social media systems during any Taiwan crisis. “You may see nothing yet … [but] expect it. China is ready to unleash that on Taiwan, and I believe a lot of that is being done now against Australia, against Japan, and especially against our citizens,” he said.

Japan Already Offers a Preview

Experts believe Japan has already experienced an early version of Beijing’s information warfare tactics. After Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made remarks supportive of Taiwan last year, Chinese state media and nationalist online networks reportedly launched a coordinated propaganda campaign against her.

Chinese social media circulated images portraying Takaichi in a World War II Japanese military uniform, attempting to associate her comments with Japanese wartime aggression. The campaign framed her as a dangerous right-wing militarist seeking to destabilize the region.

Analysts believe similar attacks could intensify against foreign leaders, journalists, and governments that openly support Taiwan in the future.

Who Is the IORG?

Much of the evidence documenting China’s expanding propaganda network comes from the Taipei-based Information Operations Research Group, commonly known as IORG. The organization is composed of social scientists and data analysts and is unaffiliated with any political party. Reuters reported that the group receives some funding from Western governments and Taiwanese academic institutions.

IORG has become one of the leading organizations tracking Chinese information warfare operations. Using facial recognition technology and large-scale social media analysis, the group has documented how Chinese state media amplify Taiwanese opposition voices and flood social platforms with anti-government messaging.

According to IORG’s findings, the scale of the operation is enormous. During the final quarter of 2025 alone, 1,076 Chinese Communist Party-affiliated media accounts posted approximately 560,000 videos on Douyin, China’s version of TikTok. Around 18,000 of those videos specifically discussed Taiwan.

The group identified 57 Taiwanese personalities appearing in 2,730 propaganda videos. The most heavily featured figure was Cheng Li-wun, who appeared in 460 videos spread across 68 Douyin accounts and generated more than five million interactions.

How China’s Propaganda Campaign Works

The strategy described by IORG and Taiwanese officials is highly organized and carefully targeted. Chinese state media take public comments made by Taiwanese opposition politicians, influencers, and retired military officials who criticize Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, then redistribute those comments through a massive network of social media platforms.

One notable example involved a 51-second video posted on Douyin showing Cheng Li-wun sharply criticizing Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te. In the clip, Cheng accused Lai of “dragging all 23 million of us in Taiwan into a dead end, a road to death” because of his pro-independence stance.

The video quickly spread beyond Chinese platforms and appeared on Facebook, YouTube, TikTok, and other sites widely used in Taiwan. Researchers say many of these videos are edited or repackaged in ways that obscure their Chinese origins, making them appear more organic and credible to Taiwanese audiences.

Chinese state media have also amplified Taiwanese influencers and former military officers who criticize the DPP government. In one widely shared clip, retired Army Colonel Lai Yueh-chien claimed Chinese drones entered Taiwan undetected during military exercises and suggested China could launch decapitation strikes against Taiwanese leaders while they slept. Taiwan’s defense ministry denied the claims after the video spread across Facebook and YouTube.

According to Taiwanese security officials and IORG researchers, the primary target of Beijing’s information campaign is Taiwan’s current leadership, especially the ruling DPP government and President Lai Ching-te.

China’s goal is to convince Taiwanese citizens that their government is recklessly provoking conflict and that resisting China is pointless. The campaign is also aimed at undermining support for Taiwan’s growing defense spending plans, including an additional $40 billion in military expenditures currently being pursued by the DPP government.

Taiwanese officials say Beijing hopes to deepen internal divisions, weaken trust in Taiwan’s military, and create psychological exhaustion among the population.

One Taiwanese security official summarized the strategy bluntly: “They want you to doubt the military and doubt Taiwan, to make you feel that no one will come to help you if war breaks out.”

Bonnie Glaser, head of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund, said the objective goes even deeper than political persuasion. “The strategy really is to lower morale, instill a sense of psychological despair, convince people they have no future in being autonomous and their best option is to join up with China,” she said.

Polls Suggest Taiwan Still Resists Beijing’s Narrative

Despite the scale of China’s digital offensive, public opinion inside Taiwan has remained surprisingly stable. According to surveys conducted by National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center, support for maintaining Taiwan’s current status indefinitely has increased by eight percentage points since 2020, reaching 33.5 percent.

Support for eventual independence declined slightly to 21.9 percent, while support for reunification with China remains extremely low at around 7 percent. Researchers say there has been little measurable shift in public opinion since China intensified its information warfare efforts in 2024.

Still, Taiwan’s government sees the threat as serious and growing. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau reported detecting more than 45,000 fake social media accounts and 2.3 million pieces of misinformation related to China and Taiwan issues during 2025 alone.

Taiwan has responded by increasing media literacy training, strengthening psychological resilience programs, and distributing civil defense manuals warning citizens that false reports of Taiwan surrendering during a crisis should automatically be treated as disinformation.

As Beijing expands its digital influence operations, experts increasingly believe that any future conflict over Taiwan may begin not with gunfire, but with a battle over what millions of people believe is true.