China is signaling a new phase of pressure on Taiwan, combining an aggressive media push at home with a sharper external strategy aimed at isolating the island. Analysts warn that the campaign has intensified to the point where the United States is now openly concerned about a sudden Chinese military move. Recent developments suggest Beijing is preparing its population and its diplomatic partners for a long, grinding effort to force Taiwan closer to unification.
A New Domestic Media Offensive
China has stepped up what Mao Zedong called the pen and the gun. The pen refers to propaganda and cultural messaging, and Beijing is using it to reshape public expectations about a future showdown with Taiwan. State television has filled its prime-time slots with a new historical drama called The Silent Honor. The series praises Communist Party agents who operated in Taiwan after 1949 and were executed for their loyalty to unification.
At the same time, state-owned drama troupes have been ordered to produce only war-themed plays. Other genres are quietly being rejected. People familiar with these decisions say it is a top-down effort to shift cultural output toward stories of national struggle.
These moves are part of a broader trend. Taiwan reunification rhetoric is already dominant in Chinese political messaging, and Beijing appears determined to harden public sentiment even further. By focusing on sacrifice, martyrdom and historical missions, the government is trying to build support for future actions that could escalate tensions.
Beijing’s External Pressure: The Gun
Externally, China is applying new forms of pressure not only on Taiwan but also on countries that openly support it. Japan is a prime target. Earlier this month, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned that a Chinese seizure of Taiwan would automatically involve Japan in any conflict. Beijing responded with shocking rhetoric. China’s Consul General in Osaka posted a threat on social media to “cut off” Takaichi’s “dirty neck.” The post was deleted, but insiders say it was deliberate and intended to test Tokyo’s resolve.
China also moved ships and drones close to disputed islands between China and Japan. Japanese fighters scrambled to intercept a Chinese military drone near Yonaguni, the closest Japanese territory to Taiwan. These are classic pieces of the pen-and-gun strategy: applying military pressure while stirring nationalist sentiment at home.
Beijing has even targeted Japanese tourism and entertainment. Authorities warned Chinese tourists not to travel to Japan, advised students to reconsider studying there and delayed the release of Japanese films. These actions rattled major Japanese companies and signaled that China can inflict economic damage when it chooses.
The Plan for Taiwan: Pressure First, Force Later
Experts say China’s plan is divided into two tracks. Plan A relies on psychological, economic and diplomatic pressure designed to make Taiwan’s situation unbearable without firing a shot. China is ramping up military incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone, hoping to exhaust Taiwan’s pilots and equipment. It is also increasing its information operations, aiming to deepen political divisions inside Taiwan.
Jason Hsu, a former Taiwanese lawmaker and now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said the strategy creates a new baseline normal. It prepares China’s domestic audience, signals resolve to the world and shapes the psychological battlefield long before any actual conflict.
But behind Plan A is Plan B, the option of force. China’s leadership believes the battle for Taiwan’s identity is slipping away. Polls show that 60 to 70 percent of Taiwan’s population now identifies exclusively as Taiwanese. Beijing sees this shift as a warning sign that peaceful unification is becoming less likely.
China’s Quiet Effort to Influence the Kuomintang
China is also stepping up efforts to influence Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) party. KMT Vice Chair Chang Jung-kung made a surprise trip to Shanghai to meet senior Chinese officials, including Song Tao from the Taiwan Affairs Office. Chang said publicly that authentic Taiwanese should “be openly and confidently Chinese.”
Both sides expressed support for the so-called 1992 Consensus, which claims there is only one China but allows for differing interpretations of which government is legitimate. The KMT’s new leadership, especially Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun, argues that warmer relations and a shared Chinese identity can prevent war. She has repeated Chinese talking points, accused President Lai Ching-te of suppressing pro-unification voices and signaled interest in meeting Xi Jinping.
Beijing appears ready to exploit these positions. Chinese state media praised Cheng’s responses to Xi’s letters and have portrayed her views as echoing Beijing’s own positions. With the KMT holding significant power in Taiwan’s legislature, analysts warn that China will try to use these political channels to slow Taiwan’s military buildup and soften its resistance.
Beijing’s Campaign of Intimidation Against Taiwanese Citizens
China is intensifying its intimidation of individual Taiwanese citizens. Police in Fujian Province announced cash bounties for information leading to the arrest of Taiwanese online personalities accused of promoting anti-China content. Officials charged them with incitement to secession, a serious crime in China.
This follows investigations into other Taiwanese activists and politicians, and new propaganda from China’s Taiwan Affairs Office that labels them as dangerous independence advocates. It is part of a broader attempt to silence voices that contradict Beijing’s narratives.
Growing U.S. Concerns About a Sudden Invasion
These developments have alarmed Washington. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission warned in its latest report that China could blockade or invade Taiwan with little advance warning. The report says the Chinese military could impose a blockade in a matter of hours and has dramatically increased its air incursions around Taiwan, rising from 20 in 2019 to more than 3,000 in 2024.
Commission Vice Chair Randall Schriver said Beijing is rapidly advancing its capabilities and is involved in increasingly aggressive gray zone activities that raise the risk of a miscalculation. He also warned that China has formed an “axis of autocracies” with Russia, Iran and North Korea.
The United States approved a 330 million dollar sale of aircraft parts to Taiwan, the first of President Trump’s second term. Taiwan says this support is essential because China’s constant military incursions are wearing down its military equipment.
Taiwan is also raising its defense budget with plans to exceed three percent of GDP in 2026 and five percent in 2030. However, some KMT lawmakers are resisting these increases, which analysts say could weaken Taiwan’s preparedness at a dangerous moment.
Pro-Taiwan analysts argue that China’s campaign shows the need for stronger alliances among the United States, Japan and the Philippines. Others believe China’s actions are designed to pressure Washington into making economic concessions. In Taiwan, many fear that Beijing is using political influence campaigns to undermine the island from within.
U.S. officials remain unsure whether this is the peak of Beijing’s pressure or the beginning of something far more dangerous. What is certain is that China is escalating on multiple fronts at once. Through media control, military pressure, political outreach and intimidation, Beijing is priming its people and the world for a long and intense pressure campaign against Taiwan.
ACZ Editor: China continues to bully and to move in a direction that indicates possible invasion. Difficult to stomach but that is Taiwan’s lot for now.