Tensions are mounting between New Zealand and the Cook Islands over a secretive agreement that Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown is set to sign with China. New Zealand, which has long held constitutional ties with the Cook Islands through a “free association” agreement, feels blindsided by the deal. Officials in Wellington view it as another example of China’s expansionist ambitions in the Pacific, a move that could shift regional alliances and challenge the influence of traditional Western powers.

New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon voiced his concerns at a press conference, stating, “Under our constitutional arrangements, we expect, you know, in matters of defense and security to be transparently discussed between partners. That’s all we’re asking for here.” Despite multiple requests, New Zealand has not been able to obtain a clear response regarding the specifics of the agreement, raising alarms about China’s growing presence in the region.

What is China Gaining?

China has been actively expanding its economic and political influence in the Pacific, and the agreement with the Cook Islands is a strategic step in that direction. Prime Minister Brown has described the deal as a “Joint Action Plan for Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” aimed at boosting infrastructure, trade, tourism, and climate initiatives. However, one of the most contentious aspects of the agreement is the potential for deep-sea mining, an industry in which China has a strong interest. The undersea minerals are valuable. Claiming rights and/or witholding minerals from the West could be even more valuable.

Brown has emphasized that the deal does not involve security or defense matters, but critics remain skeptical. China has previously leveraged economic agreements to deepen military ties, as seen in the Solomon Islands, where a security pact signed in 2022 allowed for the presence of Chinese police forces. Given this precedent, New Zealand and its allies worry that the Cook Islands could become another foothold for Beijing in the Pacific.

Why is New Zealand Upset?

New Zealand has long played a role in guiding the Cook Islands’ foreign policy under their free association agreement, which provides the island nation with financial aid and defense assistance. New Zealand officials argue that such a significant international deal should have been discussed openly before any commitments were made. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters expressed frustration, stating, “The China trip has blindsided both the Cook Islands people and ourselves,” further adding that Wellington had been requesting information for months, but “it has not been shared with us or the Cook Islands people.”

Beyond the lack of transparency, there is concern that the deal could erode the Cook Islands’ ties to New Zealand. The Cook Islands government recently considered introducing a separate national passport, a move that was widely viewed as a step toward greater independence. The plan was ultimately shelved after New Zealand opposed it, warning that it could endanger Cook Islanders’ access to New Zealand citizenship. Brown later admitted that New Zealand “bared its teeth” over the issue, forcing his administration to abandon the idea.

Some opposition leaders in the Cook Islands are also raising concerns. Tina Browne, leader of the Democratic Party, questioned why New Zealand and the Cook Islands’ own citizens were kept in the dark. “If there is nothing to hide, why are we not consulting with New Zealand?” she asked, expressing frustration at the lack of transparency surrounding the agreement.

China’s Response: Nothing to See Here

China, for its part, has dismissed concerns about the deal, insisting that it is purely cooperative and not aimed at undermining any other country’s influence. “The China-Cook Islands relationship is not targeted at any third party and should not be subject to or be disrupted by any third party,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stated.

China has been steadily increasing its involvement in the Pacific, providing over $112 million in aid to the Cook Islands since 2008, second only to New Zealand. Beijing has also worked on joint infrastructure projects with Wellington in the past, such as a major water supply project, but the growing independence of China’s engagement with Pacific nations is causing concern in Western capitals.

A Strategic Shift in the Pacific?

The Cook Islands’ move to strengthen ties with China follows a pattern seen in other Pacific nations. The Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Vanuatu have all deepened their relationships with Beijing, often at the expense of their traditional Western partners. China’s influence in the region has expanded so rapidly that the United States has recently opened new embassies in the Cook Islands, Tonga, and Kiribati to counterbalance Beijing’s outreach.

New Zealand, which has historically been the dominant external influence in the Cook Islands, now finds itself in an uncomfortable position: watching its traditional ally drift toward China with no clear way to stop it. Prime Minister Luxon has warned that his government may need to reconsider its aid commitments to the Cook Islands depending on the final details of the China deal.

“If we determine that the agreement undermines our longstanding relationship, we will have to respond accordingly,” Luxon stated, hinting at potential policy changes that could affect the Cook Islands’ access to New Zealand funding.

If China succeeds in securing deep-sea mining rights and embedding itself in the Cook Islands’ economy, the geopolitical landscape of the Pacific could shift dramatically. For New Zealand, the challenge now is finding a way to respond without further straining its relationship with one of its closest partners. For China, the Cook Islands may be just one more stepping stone in its broader strategy to reshape the balance of power in the Pacific—one that leaves Western nations scrambling to keep up.

ACZ Editor: $112 Million (about $8000 per person) seems like a lot to provide as aid to a small island chain on the other side of the world – unless of course you want something. China has a way of attempting to buy its way in to an area. And then of course you can’t get them out again.

This was rather underhanded of the Cook Islands to try to make this deal, given the several hundred million in aid provides by New Zealand and their general hands off policy. The geopolitical considerations are much larger than the amounts of money in play. We suspect that bribery was involved.