In the remote mountains of Afghanistan, a tantalizing prize lies buried deep within the earth – lithium, a vital mineral driving the global demand for electric vehicles (EVs). Once deemed the “Saudi Arabia of lithium” by the U.S. Defense Department, Afghanistan’s vast reserves attracted foreign attention, including Chinese companies, eager to capitalize on the booming EV market.

The U.S., with Joe Biden’s catastrophic, inept withdrawal, abandoned Afghanistan to the worst factions of the Taliban without preserving any relationships or influence, losing the hard earned western style rights that had been established and the protections to women who have since reverted to second class status. The region is now a black hole for the Western world.

Not so for China.

Amidst the backdrop of the Taliban’s return to power, the stakes have never been higher. The Taliban now seeks to exploit the rich lithium deposits in the country, presenting a challenge to Western efforts to influence the group and thwart China’s growing dominance in the global supply chain for EV minerals. As the demand for lithium is projected to rise significantly by 2040, with a 40-fold increase from 2020 levels, the control over this crucial resource becomes a strategic battle for countries and companies alike.

“The Chinese were unbelievable,” said Taliban commander Sayed Wali Sajid, recounting the foreigners’ relentless pursuit of the lithium. China’s interests in Afghanistan’s lithium-rich regions have led to a frenzy reminiscent of a 19th-century gold rush, with Chinese entrepreneurs seeking exploration rights and opportunities to source the valuable mineral. Chinese companies are positioning themselves to gain a significant advantage in the EV minerals market, with aggressive investments and deals.

In contrast, the United States, once a major player in lithium production, now finds itself lagging behind. The US produces a mere 1% of the world’s lithium, primarily sourced from a single mine in Nevada. With the demand for EV batteries and consumer electronics rising exponentially, the US is considering mining and purchasing lithium from outside its borders. The lack of a robust industrial base and the Chinese ability to build infrastructure and tolerate hardships have put the US at a disadvantage in the race to secure lithium resources.

China’s monopoly on the lithium industry extends beyond its vast reserves. The country also dominates lithium processing, with 60% of the world’s lithium being processed within its borders. Chinese state-owned and state-supported companies have invested in lithium mines and manufacturing facilities worldwide, further securing their hold on the global supply chain.

China’s ability to withhold lithium supplies could cripple the US economy. China’s aggressive expansion in lithium extraction and refinement has raised concerns about US economic autonomy. The country’s potential control over lithium supplies could force US companies to deal with Chinese counterparts for manufacturing EVs and other devices that rely on lithium-ion batteries.

The Chinese government’s strategic subsidies in lithium resources and its long-standing focus on lithium are designed to give Chinese companies a competitive edge over their American counterparts, and put the Chinese Communist Party in a position of geopolitical control. The US has no such strategic goal, so US companies struggle to keep up with China’s expanding control in the rare metals industry.

Recent developments have heightened concerns about China’s reach in international trade, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine underscored the risks of economic ties with hostile nations. Western countries now seek to ensure that their industrial supply chains remain controlled by allies. The US, following Canada’s lead, has attempted to limit non-allied control of earth metals and boost domestic lithium mining efforts to reduce reliance on foreign sources.

To address these concerns, the US legislature is considering bills to subsidize companies investing in, mining, and processing lithium and other earth metals domestically. Such measures aim to limit dependence on Chinese batteries and EVs and maintain control over crucial resources.

The race for lithium has turned into a geopolitical struggle for control, with China and the US at the forefront. As the EV market continues to expand and the demand for lithium rises, the country that secures a stable and reliable supply of this essential mineral will hold a significant advantage in the global energy transition.

While Afghanistan’s lithium potential remains untapped for now due to its unstable political situation, China’s strategic investments in lithium mining and processing worldwide have positioned it as a formidable player in the lithium race. The challenge for the US lies in bolstering its own domestic lithium industry and securing a reliable supply chain to maintain its competitiveness in the EV market and safeguard its economic autonomy. The quest for lithium has become a critical battleground for global power dynamics, where the outcome will shape the future of the green energy revolution and determine which nations hold the reins of the EV era.

As the world watches the developments in Afghanistan and the geopolitical chess match over lithium, one thing remains certain: the race for this precious mineral will continue to intensify, shaping the future of renewable energy and the global balance of power.