China claims to be a neutral actor in Myanmar’s ongoing civil war, saying it wants peace and regional stability. But a closer look reveals a very different picture. Beijing is playing both sides—supporting Myanmar’s brutal military regime while also keeping close ties with rebel groups fighting the junta. This double game is not about peace. It is about power. By keeping Myanmar divided and weak, China is positioning itself to gain long-term control over a critical neighbor.
The War That Won’t End
Since Myanmar’s military coup in 2021, the country has fallen deeper into civil war. Resistance forces have taken control of roughly 75 percent of the territory, according to recent estimates. The military has lost major bases and is struggling to hold ground. It now relies on airstrikes to punish civilian areas because it lacks the manpower to fight on the ground. These bombings have killed nearly 10,000 people, displaced over 3.5 million, and pushed the country into economic ruin. Typhoons and earthquakes have made matters worse. In March 2025, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake killed more than 3,500 people. Even after promising a ceasefire for humanitarian aid, the military launched fresh attacks just hours later.
Despite gains by the opposition, the resistance is still fractured. Ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces share the goal of creating a federal democratic union, but they are not well coordinated. Many operate in different parts of the country and lack the technology or security to meet regularly. This disunity gives China the opportunity to manipulate the situation to its advantage.
China’s Unique Relationship With Myanmar
China shares a 1,250-mile border with Myanmar and considers it a key piece in its regional strategy. Myanmar is home to several Chinese investments, most notably the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which connects Yunnan Province to the Indian Ocean. This route allows China to bypass the Strait of Malacca, one of the most important shipping lanes in the world.
China also depends heavily on Myanmar for natural resources. In 2024, Myanmar exported 50,000 metric tons of rare earth oxides to China, which was more than China’s domestic production. The country also supplied 79.9 percent of China’s tin ore, a vital component for electronics and semiconductors. Beijing has worked with armed groups to extract these materials with little concern for the environment or human rights.
According to the People’s Daily, China considers certain areas in Myanmar just as strategically important as disputed islands in the South China Sea. A 2012 Global Times article compared Kyaukphyu, where China is building a deep-sea port, to Huangyan Island in the Philippines. The article said, “The economic and social stability in Kyaukphyu and its surrounding region is no less important than the sovereignty disputes between China and the Philippines over Huangyan Island.”
Backing the Junta and the Rebels
While publicly calling for peace, China has kept active ties with Myanmar’s military regime. After the 2021 coup, China referred to the military takeover as a “cabinet reshuffle” and continued to hold meetings with junta leaders. In recent months, China has even increased support for the junta, providing weapons, drones, and diplomatic protection.
At the same time, China has also built strong relationships with ethnic armed groups. It supplies them with weapons, trades with them, and uses its influence to keep them under control. These ties give Beijing leverage over nearly every powerful actor in Myanmar. As one article in Foreign Affairs put it, “China finds opportunity in chaos: it is consolidating control in Myanmar by propping up the faltering regime and enabling its brutal operations, undermining resistance unity, expanding sway over several resistance forces, sidelining Western influence, and disregarding the political aspirations of the Myanmar people.”
But this balancing act changed in 2024 after the resistance achieved major victories. The turning point came with Operation 1027, a large-scale offensive launched by a coalition of ethnic armed groups. They captured two regional military commands and over 160 military bases. The fall of Lashio, a key city just 70 miles from China’s border, alarmed Beijing.
A Shift Toward the Military
After Lashio fell to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), China began siding more openly with the junta. Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited junta leaders in Naypyidaw in August 2024. Shortly after, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing traveled to Kunming to meet Chinese officials for the first time since the coup.
Beijing started pressuring rebel groups to stop their attacks. It closed border crossings, cut off power and internet to areas under rebel control, and even detained the MNDAA’s commander during a trip to China. According to local sources, the arrest was aimed at forcing the group to withdraw from Lashio.
In the same month, China increased its support for the military. It provided more fighter jets, surveillance tools, and began forming joint security forces with the junta. These new Chinese-backed companies now guard key areas, including the Kyaukphyu port and the border city of Muse. This is the first time China has established a formal armed presence in Myanmar.
China also helped the junta prepare for elections planned for 2025. Chinese Premier Li Qiang, after meeting with Min Aung Hlaing, said, “Stability in northern Myanmar is crucial, and China reaffirms the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Myanmar and strongly opposes any actions that harm the interests of Myanmar.”
Critics Call Out the Hypocrisy
Despite calling itself a peace broker, China’s actions tell a different story. Beijing’s real aim is to ensure that whichever group holds power in Myanmar, it will protect Chinese interests. That means keeping Western influence out and discouraging democratic reform. China views the National Unity Government (NUG), formed by leaders ousted in the 2021 coup, as too close to the United States. The NUG opened an office in Washington in 2022 and received verbal support from U.S. lawmakers through the BURMA Act, though little practical aid followed.
China pressured resistance groups not to work with the NUG and punished those that did. According to a leaked meeting summary, Chinese officials threatened the United Wa State Army and others for continuing to fight alongside pro-democracy forces. One group, the MNDAA, responded by publicly stating it would no longer cooperate with the NUG or meet with international officials. Still, China did not ease its pressure. Instead, it backed the junta’s bombing campaigns in Lashio and delivered additional warplanes.
As Foreign Affairs concluded, “Beijing has no genuine interest in peace or stability in Myanmar. It wants strategic dominance.”
The Regional Picture
For China, Myanmar is just one part of a much larger strategy to control Southeast Asia. By propping up the military, weakening the opposition, and preventing a united democratic front, China gains long-term leverage. It is also sending a message to the region: Chinese investments come with strings attached, and Beijing will not tolerate challenges to its influence.
The United States, meanwhile, has provided limited support. Critics argue that this has allowed China to fill the vacuum. As the resistance continues to make gains, they now face two enemies: the military junta and the growing power of China behind it.
In the words of a recent statement from the National Unity Government, “The revolution must bring about a new system that leaves no room for the Myanmar military in the country’s politics. Just applying pressure won’t work and it won’t be good for China.”
The junta still controls major cities and much of the country’s infrastructure, but it is losing ground. Resistance groups continue their offensives, especially in central Myanmar. However, their political divisions and lack of outside support could keep them from delivering a final blow.
China, meanwhile, is preparing for all outcomes. If the junta survives, Beijing will back it through rigged elections. If the resistance succeeds, China will try to work with whichever group holds power—as long as that group doesn’t threaten Chinese interests or invite Western allies.
ACZ Editor: Myanmar is broken by design. We are not sure the plans China has for it, but it could be turned into any kind of puppet state desired, perhaps as a source of soldiers, perhaps as a catspaw terrorist source, or perhaps an international disruptor of some sort. But right now chaos will be the status quo.