The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has recently issued a sobering analysis on the escalating partnership between China and Russia, which has darkened the outlook for Ukraine and, potentially, for Western democracies. China’s support for Russia now extends well beyond diplomatic gestures; it includes shared economic initiatives, joint military drills, and an alignment on policies that challenge Western influence. With both nations showing a determination to confront U.S. power, the CFR warns that the implications of this alliance could be far-reaching and perilous for Ukraine, Europe, and even U.S. national security.
The China-Russia Bond: New Levels of Partnership
The collaboration between China and Russia has moved from cordial diplomatic relations to a powerful alliance with clearly defined objectives. On October 3, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly praised China’s stance on Taiwan and condemned U.S. actions in Asia, accusing the United States of escalating regional tensions. Lavrov’s statements were not isolated comments but part of a broader Russian plan to align with Chinese interests, from Taiwan to global security concerns. Lavrov has even proposed a new Eurasian security framework, positioning both nations as guardians of stability against what they view as Western aggression.
Economic cooperation has been a cornerstone of this alliance. Trade between China and Russia rose by 2.7% in the first nine months of 2024, amounting to 1.28 trillion yuan (about $180.3 billion). In Russia’s auto market, Chinese brands have taken over, with automakers like Chery, Geely, and Haval filling the gap left by Western manufacturers who left due to sanctions over the Ukraine invasion. Chinese automakers now make up over half of Russia’s vehicle sales—a sharp increase from less than 10% before the conflict. Meanwhile, China’s exports to Russia surged by 15.7% in September 2024, marking the highest growth rate in nearly a year. This rapid growth, fueled by economic agreements that bypass traditional Western channels, strengthens Russia’s economy even under sanctions, providing a lifeline for its war-driven economy.
Joint Military Operations: A Show of Force
China and Russia’s military cooperation has expanded both in frequency and in scope, showing an alarming level of coordination. On October 15, Chinese and Russian military leaders met to discuss strategies for countering U.S. influence in Asia. Shortly afterward, China increased its military activity near Taiwan, a move that the United States has condemned as a provocation. In another display of power, Chinese and Russian coast guards jointly patrolled the Arctic Sea for the first time on October 2, a strategic maneuver aimed at securing vital energy resources and bypassing traditional trade routes like the Strait of Malacca. These Arctic patrols serve China’s ambition to control more secure energy routes and help Russia diversify its oil exports, which are critical as sanctions choke traditional markets.
In the Pacific, Chinese and Russian navies conducted joint drills, including anti-submarine and air-defense exercises, in mid-October. These exercises build upon previous collaborations like Northern/Interaction-2024, held in the Sea of Japan. Through these increasingly sophisticated drills, China and Russia demonstrate a united front against Western influence in Asia and the Pacific, aiming to establish a shared sphere of influence that excludes Western intervention. For the United States and its allies, these coordinated exercises signal a disturbing increase in military alignment between two of the world’s major powers.
Growing Economic Ties and Resistance to Western Sanctions
On October 16, leaders from China and Russia met at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Islamabad, Pakistan. There, they announced plans to deepen economic ties despite what they called “unprecedented external pressure.” Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Chinese Premier Li Qiang discussed stronger collaboration in areas like food security and transportation, signaling to the world that Western sanctions have not been able to dismantle their alliance. The SCO condemned protectionist trade policies and unilateral sanctions that Western countries, especially the United States, have imposed on nations like Russia and Iran. With support from China, Russia has managed to withstand these sanctions to a surprising degree, leveraging their trade agreements to maintain economic growth and continue military operations in Ukraine.
At the BRICS summit on October 22, China and Russia took another step in their economic coordination. Russia proposed a new payment system for BRICS countries, one that would bypass the U.S. dollar entirely, aiming to reduce vulnerability to Western financial restrictions. China endorsed this plan, seeing it as a chance to undermine the global dominance of the dollar and the sway of Western-led financial institutions. Both nations appear committed to establishing an “independent cross-border settlement and depository infrastructure,” dubbed BRICS Clear, to conduct international transactions in their own national currencies.
The Ukraine Crisis and China’s Tactical Role
While China claims to seek peace in Ukraine, its actions tell a different story. Chinese and Russian companies have been developing long-range drones specifically designed for use in the Ukraine conflict, which prompted the United States to issue fresh sanctions on the involved companies on October 23. The new sanctions differ from previous ones, targeting entities directly involved in military technology production rather than those supplying dual-use goods. Although China has refrained from direct lethal support, NATO considers China a significant supporter of Russia’s war efforts due to its supply of advanced technology and components.
China has also tightened its own export control regulations, ostensibly to increase oversight on items with potential military use. Western analysts, however, view this move with suspicion, suggesting it could help China monitor and control dual-use technology that ends up supporting Russia’s military indirectly. While China denies supplying weapons to Russia, its trade with Russia involves technology that could potentially be used in warfare. These regulations add to the perception that China is engaged in a careful balancing act, publicly denying direct involvement in the conflict while ensuring that Russia has what it needs to sustain its military campaign.
Election Interference and Rising Threats to Western Democracy
China, Russia, and other authoritarian regimes have intensified their efforts to influence Western elections, with the United States as a key target. According to a report from the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center, issued on October 23, Russia, China, and Iran are running sophisticated campaigns aimed at sowing distrust in American democracy. Russia is focusing on the Kamala Harris–Tim Walz campaign, deploying AI-generated deepfakes to spread disinformation. Although these digital manipulations lack mass engagement, the mere existence of such campaigns reveals a disturbing willingness to exploit political divisions in the United States.
China has targeted congressional candidates it considers “anti-China,” signaling a disturbing trend in foreign interference that aims to reshape U.S. policies from within. This effort to influence lower-profile races highlights the depth of China’s focus on weakening pro-Taiwan and anti-China sentiments in American politics. Together, these campaigns represent a broader strategy to destabilize Western societies, potentially reducing the ability of Western democracies to respond to threats from abroad.
A Warning for the Future
The CFR’s analysis leaves little room for optimism about the China-Russia alliance. The coordinated efforts of these two powers to expand their influence while sidestepping Western pressure paint a dark picture for Ukraine and for the security of the West. With their partnership deepening across economic, military, and political lines, the alliance poses a formidable challenge to Western interests. As China and Russia tighten their grip on international affairs, they offer a new model of authoritarian resilience—one that could erode democratic influence on the global stage.
For Ukraine, the implications are particularly grim. Facing not only Russia’s relentless military aggression but also the indirect support of China, Ukraine’s struggle is made all the more difficult by a global power structure increasingly hostile to its sovereignty. Meanwhile, Western nations must confront the hard reality that China and Russia’s bond is designed to weaken their influence, destabilize their democracies, and ultimately, to challenge their very way of life.