The warning comes from an article published on the Foreign Affairs website by Eyck Freymann, and it is not describing something that has already happened, but something that could. The scenario he outlines is hypothetical, yet grounded in real capabilities and policies. The threat to Taiwan, he argues, may not begin with missiles or an invasion. Instead, it could start with something far quieter. It begins with “routine customs inspections” carried out by Chinese coast guard vessels and aviation authorities asserting control over traffic in and out of Taiwan.
Freymann’s analysis draws on China’s existing legal claims and demonstrated behavior. Beijing already asserts the right to regulate trade flows involving what it calls “Taiwan Province.”
The scenario is hypothetical, but the foundation is real. China has conducted large scale exercises, deployed coast guard fleets, and practiced coordinated operations that could support such a move. These actions suggest that what is described is not far-fetched, but a plausible next step.
How Custom Inspections Could Be Used as Control
In this scenario, Chinese authorities begin inspecting ships and aircraft bound for Taiwan. Airlines and shipping companies would likely comply almost immediately, not because they agree, but because the risks of resisting are too high.
The threat of detention or seizure would be enough. Even more decisive would be insurance. Companies cannot operate without it, and insurers would likely refuse coverage for operators that ignore Chinese directives.
This creates a powerful enforcement mechanism without direct confrontation. Nearly all traffic could be rerouted through mainland China, particularly Fujian Province, before reaching Taiwan. China would effectively become the gatekeeper.
What China Could Demand
Under this hypothetical framework, China would not shut down trade entirely. Instead, it would allow flows to continue under its rules.
Those rules could include banning weapons shipments into Taiwan and restricting “dual use components that Taiwan can use to make weapons.” U.S. military advisers could be excluded.
Control could extend to people as well. Political figures labeled as “separatists” might face travel restrictions. Even key technical workers, such as semiconductor engineers, could be prevented from leaving.
These measures would give China the ability to apply pressure selectively.
Why Taiwan Might Initially Go Along
Because trade continues and there is no immediate collapse, Taiwan and international companies might initially treat these requirements as manageable.
That is what makes the scenario so dangerous.
What appears to be a small concession to avoid escalation could actually establish a new norm. By complying, Taiwan would be acknowledging China’s authority over its borders in practice, even if not in name.
Once that precedent is set, it becomes much harder to push back.
Even in this hypothetical case, the implications are clear. Control over trade and transportation is a core function of sovereignty.
If China can regulate who and what enters and leaves Taiwan, it effectively gains partial control over the island’s economic future.
Taiwan would still function, but under conditions dictated by Beijing.
One of the most important elements in this scenario is the role of insurance.
China would not need to enforce compliance through force. The mere risk of enforcement would be enough to cause insurers to withdraw coverage from noncompliant operators.
Without insurance, global shipping and aviation cannot function. This creates a powerful indirect lever that pushes companies to comply voluntarily.
How This Tightens the Noose
Once China establishes the principle that it can control access to Taiwan, it gains a flexible tool for coercion.
It could restrict certain goods, limit exports, or apply pressure in response to political decisions. Freymann warns that “once Beijing establishes the norm that it can control who and what comes and goes from Taiwan,” the implications extend beyond the island.
This approach could be used to pressure other countries in the region, reshaping economic relationships without direct conflict.
Why This Puts the United States in a Tough Spot
This scenario creates a strategic dilemma for the United States.
Because China’s actions would fall short of traditional military aggression, responding forcefully becomes more difficult. Supply chains might continue to function, at least initially, reducing the urgency of intervention.
At the same time, doing nothing would allow China to consolidate control.
Freymann describes this as a situation where the burden of escalation shifts to Washington. The U.S. must decide whether to accept the new reality or risk triggering a broader crisis.
Project 2049 and the Long Term Strategy
This hypothetical scenario fits into China’s broader long term goals. The year 2049 is tied to national rejuvenation, a vision that includes bringing Taiwan under Chinese control.
The preferred model is “one country, two systems,” which would allow Taiwan to retain some autonomy while recognizing Chinese sovereignty.
Over time, that autonomy could be reduced through incremental pressure.
Hong Kong offers a real world example. It was promised a high degree of autonomy, but that autonomy has been steadily eroded. In the view of many, the concept of Hong Kong is dead.
The same pattern could be applied to Taiwan, step by step.
A Small Move With Massive Implications
What makes this scenario so concerning is how subtle it is. There is no immediate shock. Trade continues. Flights operate. Daily life appears unchanged. But beneath the surface, control is shifting.
By inserting itself into Taiwan’s economic lifelines, China would gain leverage that could be expanded over time. Each small step would build on the last. What begins as a limited inspection regime could evolve into a comprehensive system of control.
And by the time the full implications are clear, reversing the process could be far more difficult than resisting it at the start.
ACZ Editor: This is but one scenario of many. We have covered other scenarios including political and propaganda efforts, all of which China is working on simultaneously.
As we have said before, rich people don’t fight. Taiwan’s military has some capability, but will the people of Taiwan do what is takes to remain independent in the face of a fight on a hundred different fronts? From military to bureaucratic to psychological, China has money, determination and time on its side.