Germany is undergoing one of the most dramatic military transformations in its modern history. Political leaders, generals, and security planners are preparing the country for the possibility of a Russian attack, warning that time may be running out.

At the center of this effort is Carsten Breuer, Germany’s top military officer. His message is blunt. “We have to be ready,” he says.

Why Germany Believes Russia Could Attack

German military intelligence estimates that within the next three years, Russia could have amassed enough troops and weapons to launch a wider war across Europe. Breuer warns that even a smaller attack could come at any time.

He points to Russia’s wartime footing. Its economy has been mobilized for military production. It is stockpiling artillery shells and tanks and expanding its forces to 1.5 million men. Possible support from China, logistically and economically like has been provide for the Ukraine war makes the possibility all the more serious.

“We need to be very focused on deterring and defending against Russia,” Breuer says.

German planners describe Europe as existing in a dangerous gray zone. Not yet at war, but no longer at peace. Recent drone incursions, cyberattacks, sabotage of railways and communications cables, and disinformation campaigns are seen as possible preparations for something larger.

A classified military blueprint known as OPLAN outlines how Germany would defend itself in a major NATO conflict. It warns that hybrid attacks “can fundamentally serve to prepare a military confrontation.” Germany would likely become “a prioritized target of conventional attacks with long-range weapon systems.”

Interior officials have described the country as a “daily target of hybrid warfare.”

Germany’s military intelligence believes Russia could be ready for a broader European war within three years. That timeline has injected urgency into defense planning.

Breuer has adopted the term kriegstüchtig, meaning war ready, as a rallying cry. He says the country must adopt “a new mindset.”

“We need to train where and how we will fight,” he told soldiers during exercises in Lithuania. “We need to be agile.”

Rebuilding a Military That Had Shrunk

After the Cold War, Germany sharply reduced its military spending and troop numbers. By the 2010s, its armed forces were less than half their Cold War size, and much equipment was in disrepair.

That has now changed.

Defense spending has risen sharply. A 100 billion euro fund was created to modernize the armed forces. Germany has pledged to spend more than 2 percent of GDP on defense each year.

Germany is rebuilding armored forces and replenishing stockpiles. Hundreds of Leopard 2 tanks and Puma infantry fighting vehicles have been ordered. The country has also permanently stationed an armored brigade of about 4,800 to 5,000 troops in Lithuania, the first permanent foreign deployment of German troops since World War II.

The goal is to field three fully equipped combat divisions by 2032.

Breuer has also pushed for rapid innovation. He began sending funds directly to battalion and brigade commanders so they could buy commercial drones and experiment. “Every rifleman will need to be a drone pilot,” he predicts.

Drone defense teams have been assembled with jammers, radar, and counter drone systems. When Belgium requested help during drone incursions, Germany deployed a unit that became operational the next day. “That is huge,” said former NATO military committee chair Rob Bauer. “The German armed forces were big, but not ready. He’s working on that.”

Filling the Ranks in a Reluctant Society

Perhaps the greatest challenge is manpower.

Germany’s armed forces currently number around 182,000 to 184,000 troops. Leaders want to increase that to more than 200,000 in the near term and significantly more over the next decade, supported by as many as 200,000 reservists.

Parliament has approved a law requiring young men to complete a military service questionnaire. Starting in 2027, they are expected to undergo medical exams to determine fitness for service. The government hopes this will encourage voluntary enlistment. If not, conscription could return.

But public opinion reveals deep hesitation.

A recent poll found that nearly 60 percent of Germans said they would not take up arms if the country were attacked. Only 16 percent said they would definitely fight, and 22 percent said they probably would.

Among young Germans aged 16 to 29, just 42 percent supported new military service requirements. Another survey found that 59 percent said they probably or definitely would not take up arms to defend the country.

Breuer confronts this resistance directly. At the University of Mannheim, he asked students, “Can we fight a war? Are you ready for war?”

When one student argued that war only leads to death and suggested the money might be better spent promoting democracy, Breuer responded, “If peace is achievable, we must do everything to attain it.” But he warned that past efforts to engage Russia through trade and diplomacy had failed to keep the Kremlin on a peaceful path.

He insists that strength is necessary to preserve peace. “We have to make sure that we in Germany are not vulnerable, that we can’t be attacked and that a possible aggressor knows an attack isn’t worth it.”

Preparing Municipalities for War on German Soil

Germany’s preparations are not limited to the military.

Under OPLAN, the Bundeswehr has held classified talks with mayors and district administrators across the country. Municipalities are identifying critical infrastructure such as bridges, junctions, and emergency wells. Civil defense facilities and bunkers are being reviewed and restored.

Local governments are being told to ensure roads and bridges can handle tanks, to prepare assembly points for internally displaced persons, and to coordinate medical and logistical support for large troop movements.

In a conflict, Germany would act as a transit hub for NATO forces moving to the eastern front. Military planners assume the need to support and supply hundreds of thousands of allied troops.

Businesses are also being integrated into the plan. Transport associations have been asked about their ability to support military mobility. Companies may be required to release fit employees for service and maintain production of essential defense goods. Authorities can requisition stockpiles, vehicles, machinery, and even land if necessary.

Civilian systems are described as essential to military success. Transport networks, energy supplies, health services, and private contractors are considered critical enablers. “Numerous tasks require civilian support,” the OPLAN document states.

Protecting Against Foreign Sabotage

German planners view foreign sabotage and cyberattacks not as isolated incidents but as possible early stages of war.

The OPLAN blueprint lays out a five phase escalation model, from early threat detection to full NATO collective defense. Germany considers itself currently in the first phase, focused on building a shared threat picture and strengthening logistics and protection measures.

Homeland security units have been assigned to protect critical infrastructure and secure troop movements. Officials warn that Germany, as NATO’s main logistical hub in Europe, would likely be an early and major target.

“We are being tested,” Breuer says. “They are looking for ways we are vulnerable.”

Support Is Rising, but So Is Skepticism

Public attitudes have shifted since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. About two thirds of Germans now view Russia’s military as a threat. Sixty four percent support increasing defense spending, and 65 percent favor larger armed forces.

But skepticism remains.

Some analysts argue that the reluctance to fight reflects deeper cultural change in wealthy societies. Strategic thinker Edward Luttwak has described modern Europe as engaged in “post-heroic warfare,” where avoiding casualties becomes more important than achieving victory.

Political scientist Andrew Mack has argued that rich countries often lose conflicts not because they lack firepower, but because they lack the will to endure hardship.

Others question whether massive spending can overcome a society shaped by decades of peace and prosperity. One recent commentary warned that the real crisis may not be in the barracks but in the national mindset.

Even so, the political taboo against German hard power has largely fallen away. Germany’s leaders now openly speak of making the country Europe’s strongest conventional force.

Germany’s military headquarters in Berlin sits beside a memorial to officers executed for plotting against Hitler. A carpet in the atrium resembles bombed out Berlin at the end of World War II.

“It’s our duty to make sure this never happens again,” Breuer says.

For him, preparing for war is not about seeking conflict, but about preventing it.

Whether Germany can mobilize not just its tanks and drones but also its people remains an open question. The country is racing to rebuild its military, fortify its infrastructure, and harden itself against sabotage.

But as Breuer and others warn, the timeline may be short.

The clock, they believe, is ticking.