The House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party has issued a stark warning: the United States may be running out of time to stop a war between China and Taiwan. During a hearing titled “Deterrence Amid Rising Tensions: Preventing CCP Aggression on Taiwan”, held on May 15, 2025, members of Congress and national security experts laid out in detail how close the world may be to a conflict in the Taiwan Strait and what must be done immediately to prevent it.
Chairman John Moolenaar of Michigan opened the hearing with a blunt statement: “2027 is not an American date but a Chinese one.” He was referring to the directive from Chinese President Xi Jinping that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) be fully prepared to seize Taiwan by force by the year 2027. Moolenaar added, “Deterrence delayed is deterrence denied,” a phrase repeated throughout the hearing to emphasize the shrinking window for action.
He explained that the committee’s goal is not to provoke war, but to stop one. “We are not seeking war. We are trying to prevent one. And prevention only works if Xi believes that the cost of aggression is too high to bear,” Moolenaar said.
A Military Threat That Can No Longer Be Ignored
Retired General Charles Flynn, who led the U.S. Army in the Pacific, testified that the risk of invasion is no longer a distant or unlikely threat. “You can’t invade Taiwan unless you can generate an invasion force—and that is what we must prevent,” Flynn said. He criticized past U.S. military strategy for focusing too much on sea and air power while underinvesting in land forces that could physically block a Chinese invasion.
Flynn stated, “The PLA does not fear our ships and aircraft. What it fears is a credible force that can counter its Army before it ever reaches Taiwan.”
Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, also retired, warned that China’s preparations go far beyond traditional weapons. “China is preparing to strike not just with missiles—but with malware and economic coercion,” Montgomery said. He argued that “America’s ability to deter China is withering. And, thus, the risk of a conflict is growing.”
Montgomery criticized the delay in foreign military sales to Taiwan. “The stories of egregious foreign military sales delays are not anecdotal. They are persistent,” he said, noting that Taiwan cannot face China’s growing threat alone.
At the heart of the concern is China’s aggressive military buildup and modernization. For the past thirty years, China has invested heavily in missile systems, cyber operations, and military mobility aimed at exploiting weaknesses in the U.S. and allied defense systems. According to Montgomery, “China is skillfully integrating kinetic and non-kinetic instruments of power in a way that the United States and its allies struggle to match.”
Kurt Campbell, former Deputy Secretary of State and a key voice on Asia policy, praised the committee’s bipartisan effort and underlined how closely U.S. allies are watching. “The real challenge that we face—if we have a faltering of our will—that is what China wants,” Campbell said. “We must keep our capabilities shifting more of our capacity to the Indo-Pacific, recognizing that this is where the ultimate challenge to American power is in the 21st century.”
In response to the increasing threat, Taiwan is working to make its military more prepared and resilient. Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo stated that Taiwan is focusing on combat readiness and is preparing not just for a swift battle, but for a prolonged war if necessary.
“As we are situated on an island, we need to stockpile military supplies in case China launches multiple assaults. We may even need to prepare for a war of endurance,” President Lai Ching-te said, as quoted by Focus Taiwan.
Taiwan has already extended its mandatory military service and is prioritizing asymmetric warfare strategies. These include investments in drones, mobile radar, and small, precise strike capabilities to make any Chinese invasion costly and difficult. The annual Han Kuang exercises, scheduled for July 9 to 18, will be longer and more detailed than previous years. According to Koo, these war games are aimed at “identifying weaknesses in existing plans and addressing any issues.”
What the U.S. Must Do Now
The committee called for a wide range of actions to strengthen deterrence and prepare for worst-case scenarios. These include:
- Accelerating weapons deliveries to Taiwan and fixing the Foreign Military Sales system, which currently has a backlog of over $21 billion in promised but undelivered arms.
- Increasing military training and exercises with Taiwan’s forces to improve cooperation and readiness.
- Pre-positioning weapons and supplies in Taiwan so that they are available in case of an emergency.
- Creating a “Taiwan Contact Group” with key allies like Japan, Australia, and the Philippines to coordinate efforts.
Montgomery explained why this is urgent. “You don’t want to try to airlift munitions into a war zone. You want them already in place,” he said.
Economic and National Security Stakes for the U.S.
Chairman Moolenaar made it clear that the threat to Taiwan is not just a foreign problem—it would have a direct and painful impact on the American people.
Taiwan is one of the largest buyers of U.S. agricultural goods like corn and soybeans. It is also the world’s leading producer of advanced semiconductors, which are essential to modern electronics, from smartphones to fighter jets. Losing Taiwan to Chinese control would likely trigger a global economic collapse.
“Losing access would trigger an immediate Great Depression,” Moolenaar said, warning that the damage could be worse than what was seen during the COVID pandemic.
Montgomery added, “From Midwest farmers selling soy to Taiwan, to engineers working in fabs funded by Taiwan’s investment, millions of American jobs are tied to this relationship.”
The committee also stressed the moral reasons for defending Taiwan. Taiwan is a democracy that respects political freedoms and human rights. Allowing China to crush it would send a dangerous message to the world that authoritarian aggression goes unpunished.
“If Xi Jinping thinks he can take Taiwan without serious consequences, he’s more likely to act,” Moolenaar said. “Strong deterrence now reduces the chances of war later.”
A Closing Window
The hearing made one thing crystal clear: the United States is rapidly approaching a point where it may no longer be able to stop a Chinese assault on Taiwan. But lawmakers and experts believe the situation is still salvageable if immediate steps are taken.
“This hearing is part of that,” Moolenaar concluded. “And I thank our witnesses for helping us get it right.”
The road ahead will not be easy, but doing nothing may cost far more than any action taken now. The time to reinforce deterrence, build alliances, and invest in Taiwan’s defense is not in the future—it is now
ACZ Editor: It is nice to attempt to bring Taiwan’s military up to snuff, but Taiwan is about 1/15th the size of China. Such a war would get ugly very quickly. And history shows that rich countries do not have much of a will to fight…