Michael Sheridan of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) has provided some interesting insights into Russia’s battlefield gains and the perception of victory in Ukraine are serving China’s broader ambitions on the world stage. Sheridan writes, Beijing views the outcome of the war not as a disruption but as an opportunity. Xi Jinping is preparing to host Vladimir Putin as guest of honor at a September 3 parade, a symbolic gesture that frames China as unshaken by conflict elsewhere. For Xi, Russia’s resilience bolsters his own strategic project of positioning China as the central pillar of a new multipolar world order.
A Narrative of Strength and Stability
By aligning with Russia’s perceived victory, China projects an image of calm confidence. Domestic milestones such as the upcoming Fourth Plenum signal continuity, while international events showcase China’s claim to a new role in global leadership. Commentators in state media frame the weakening of U.S. soft power and divisions within the West as evidence that history is tilting in Beijing’s favor. As the People’s Daily argued, organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are creating alternatives to U.S.-led institutions, suggesting that a post-American era has already begun.
Building a Multipolar Order
In Beijing’s view, Russia’s success in Ukraine validates the idea that Western alliances are fragile and regionalized. China places itself alongside Russia, Iran, and North Korea in a bloc of autocracies, while encouraging the “Global South” to see Beijing as a partner in economic development and governance. This narrative allows China to pursue projects like a world governance center for Artificial Intelligence in Shanghai, cementing its claim to global stewardship in technology and economics.
Strategic Leverage Through War
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently noted that “there is no way that Putin could have sustained this war without Chinese support.” By buying Russian oil and providing cover for Moscow, China ensures the conflict continues to drain Western focus and resources. For Xi, this distraction opens more space to advance influence in Asia, Africa, and Europe. The longer Russia holds its ground, the more China appears as the inevitable alternative power.
Even as Beijing takes advantage of shifting geopolitics, its leadership remains cautious. Internal shake-ups in the Communist Party’s foreign policy apparatus underscore the delicacy of projecting global power while maintaining strict control at home. Still, with Russia’s survival and apparent success, China gains both a stronger ally and a demonstration that Western dominance can be challenged. That outcome advances Xi’s vision of a world where China no longer plays second to the United States, but sets the rules of global order.
Challenges Behind the Facade
Despite the confident tone of parades and party meetings, Beijing is not without internal troubles. Reports have emerged that Liu Jianchao, head of the Communist Party’s International Relations Department and a prominent figure in overseas influence operations, has been arrested on his return from abroad. His deputy, Sun Haiyan, is also said to have been detained. Both were widely seen as key players in China’s foreign influence campaigns, and their sudden downfall surprised outside observers. The shake-up leaves foreign affairs more tightly controlled by veteran diplomat Wang Yi, whose loyalty to Xi draws comparisons to Stalin’s foreign minister, Vyacheslav Molotov.
Even so, Beijing’s strategy remains consistent. By amplifying Russia’s survival as proof that the West is in decline, and by presenting itself as the stable, forward-looking alternative, China is positioning to emerge as the central power in a post-American order. Russia’s war has become less about Ukraine alone and more about advancing the long-term global ambitions of Beijing.