India and China: A Rivalry Fueled by Tension

Tensions between India and China have simmered for years, driven largely by border disputes along the Line of Actual Control and competing ambitions for regional dominance in Asia. Military standoffs in 2017 and 2020 exposed weaknesses in India’s modernization efforts and highlighted China’s rapid technological progress, forcing Indian policymakers to confront what analysts describe as a widening capability gap.

Despite those concerns, new rankings and battlefield experiences have sparked a surprising debate. Some experts now argue that India’s air force may actually hold an operational edge over China’s in key areas, even if China maintains numerical superiority.

How India Stacks Up Globally

According to the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft, global air power rankings are based on more than raw numbers. The system evaluates combat effectiveness, logistics, modernization, and training through what is called a TruVal Rating.

The United States remains dominant by a wide margin. Russia is second. India is ranked third with a score of 69.4, while China is fourth at 63.8. Japan follows at 58.1.

This ranking has drawn attention because China has far more aircraft than India. China fields about 5,357 military aircraft overall, including 3,733 in the People’s Liberation Army Air Force. India has about 2,488 across all services, including 1,716 in the Indian Air Force.

In simple terms, China has more than double the total aircraft. Yet India still scored higher in overall effectiveness.

Why Some Analysts Say India Has the Edge

The main reason India ranks ahead is balance. Analysts determined that India’s fleet includes a more diverse mix of fighters, helicopters, transports, and trainers than China’s force structure.

India’s Air Force composition includes roughly 31.6 percent fighters, 29 percent helicopters, and 21.8 percent trainers. China’s force is more heavily concentrated in fighters, which make up about 52.9 percent of its fleet.

India also operates aircraft from multiple countries, including Rafale, Mirage 2000, Su-30MKI, MiG-29, and its domestically produced Tejas fighter. The country recently retired its aging MiG-21 fleet after six decades of service.

Operational experience has also influenced perceptions. During Operation Sindoor against Pakistan, Indian air power demonstrated effectiveness against systems heavily dependent on Chinese technology. Analysts noted that Chinese air defense equipment used by Pakistan “do not appear to have been as effective as the Pakistan Air Force would have hoped,” according to Bilal Khan of Quwa Defence News & Analysis.

Some experts argue that training quality, close air support capabilities, and specialized bomber units contributed to India’s higher rating despite China’s modernization.

China’s Technological Advantages

Despite India’s ranking advantage, many analysts still believe China holds the technological upper hand.

China is the only country besides the United States to develop two fifth generation fighters, the J-20 and J-35. It is also reportedly working on a sixth generation aircraft known as the J-36, which has already completed a maiden flight.

These advances reflect China’s massive industrial base and integrated defense manufacturing system. India, by contrast, still relies heavily on imports for critical technology and has struggled with delays in domestic production programs.

India’s Air Chief Marshal Amar Preet Singh acknowledged the challenge, saying, “We are chasing technology now. We should reach a stage, where technology comes out of India and others are chasing it.”

India’s indigenous programs have faced repeated delays. The Tejas fighter and Advanced Light Dhruv helicopter have experienced delivery issues, while the country’s planned fifth generation fighter is not expected to fly until at least 2028.

China’s industrial capacity is widely viewed as a decisive advantage. Analysts note that Beijing’s ability to build advanced aircraft stems from decades of investment across both civilian and military sectors, something India has yet to replicate.

The Numbers Versus Capability Debate

The contrast between numbers and capability is central to the India versus China discussion.

China’s air force is much larger and continues to modernize rapidly. But India’s supporters argue that combat effectiveness is about more than size. Logistics, training, fleet diversity, and operational doctrine matter just as much.

This mirrors broader military comparisons, where having more equipment does not automatically translate into superiority if the systems are less integrated or the force structure is unbalanced.

India’s Strategic Challenges

Even with its ranking boost, India faces serious internal challenges. The Indian Air Force currently operates only 31 of its sanctioned 42 fighter squadrons, creating readiness concerns. Pilot shortages and procurement delays add further strain.

At the same time, India must prepare for a two front threat from both China and Pakistan. Pakistan’s planned acquisition of Chinese J-31 stealth fighters could reduce India’s traditional advantage over its western neighbor.

These pressures are forcing India to rethink its defense strategy. Policymakers are debating whether to continue pursuing full technological parity with China or adopt a more pragmatic approach that combines domestic production with foreign partnerships.

What the Future May Hold

Recent diplomatic moves suggest a potential shift in India’s posture. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently emphasized that “only through dialogue can we build a stable, cooperative relationship,” signaling a softer tone toward Beijing after years of confrontation.

Still, military planners remain cautious. Air power continues to play a decisive role in modern conflicts. Achieving air superiority can determine the outcome of a conflict within days.

For India, the debate is no longer just about matching China aircraft for aircraft. It is about defining a realistic strategy that leverages its strengths while addressing technological gaps.

ACZ Editor: It is tough to say India is better when China has such a numerical advantage. And in a prolonged conflict one might think that the industrial power producing the latest Chinese jets will probably outpace India’s ability to produce the less advanced Tejas.