Iran’s missile program is showing clear signs of resurgence, with crucial chemical shipments arriving from China. Satellite imagery and intelligence sources confirm that the Chinese vessel Golbon recently arrived at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, carrying 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate. This chemical is a key ingredient in the production of solid propellant used in Iran’s mid-range ballistic missiles, including the Kheibar Shekan and Haj Qasem models.
The shipment, which originated from the Chinese port of Taicang, suggests that Iran’s missile manufacturing capabilities may be recovering much faster than anticipated. Following Israel’s targeted strikes on Iranian missile production facilities last year, Western experts estimated that it would take at least a year for Iran to restore its solid-propellant production. However, this latest delivery suggests that Iran is either close to resuming full-scale production or has already restarted it. According to Western intelligence sources, “this delivery points to Iran being not far from – or that they could already be back to – the production of its missiles.”
Western Intelligence and U.S. Reactions
Reports from multiple Western intelligence agencies indicate that the procurement was arranged through Iran’s Self Sufficiency Jihad Organization (SSJO), a key entity within Iran’s missile development infrastructure. The United States is closely monitoring the situation, though it has been cautious in revealing specifics. A State Department spokesperson acknowledged awareness of the media reports but declined to comment on intelligence matters. “We are aware of the press reports. However, we do not comment on intelligence matters,” the spokesperson told VOA News.
Despite the limited official response, Washington has emphasized its ongoing commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring materials that could enhance its missile capabilities. “The U.S. remains focused on preventing the proliferation of items, equipment, and technology that could benefit Iran’s missile or other weapons programs and continues to hold Iran accountable through sanctions,” the State Department said.
Sanctions and Strategic Alliances
Both the Golbon and the yet-to-depart Jairan are operated by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), a company under U.S. and UK sanctions for its role in Iran’s defense procurement. The UK Treasury described IRISL as being “involved in hostile activity by Iran” and highlighted its direct ties to the Iranian defense sector.
China, Iran’s largest energy buyer, has long opposed what it calls “unilateral” U.S. sanctions, maintaining economic and strategic ties with Tehran. Although Beijing has scaled back certain security-related dealings with Iran in an effort to strengthen relations with Gulf states, recent joint military exercises involving China, Iran, and Russia have signaled ongoing military cooperation. China has also taken steps to support Iran diplomatically, welcoming Tehran into international blocs such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS.
Although China’s official stance remains one of non-interference, its actions tell a different story. Western intelligence officials note that “China has long been a primary source of sodium perchlorate for Iran’s missile programs, dating at least to the mid-2000s.” Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, told CNN, “This is just the latest shipment in a decades-old pattern.”
Regional and Global Implications
The resumption of Iran’s missile production has serious consequences for regional security. Iran-backed groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, have received Iranian-supplied missiles in previous conflicts, and this new supply line could strengthen their capabilities. Israeli security analysts have expressed concern, noting that missiles such as the Kheibar Shekan and Haj Qasem—both of which can travel nearly 900 miles—pose a direct threat to Israel and other regional adversaries.
According to CNN, Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system intercepted “at least 50 medium-range missiles with solid propulsion” launched by Iran during an attack on October 1, 2024. Wreckage analysis confirmed that at least one of these missiles was a Kheibar Shekan, further validating concerns that Iran’s missile stockpile remains formidable. U.S. Air Force General Kenneth McKenzie testified before Congress in 2023 that Iran possesses “over 3,000 ballistic missiles,” though exact numbers of specific models remain classified.
Beyond the Middle East, Iran’s missile production also has implications for Europe and Ukraine. Intelligence sources indicate that Iran has supplied drones and potentially missile components to Russia, raising concerns about whether this latest shipment of sodium perchlorate could contribute to Moscow’s war efforts. A Western intelligence official told CNN that while the U.S. is “aware of the delivery,” the real concern is “whether Iran will funnel the chemicals towards missile fuel production, especially for weapons destined for Russia.”
The Legality and Chemistry Behind the Shipment
Despite its clear military applications, sodium perchlorate itself is not illegal under Western sanctions. However, once converted into ammonium perchlorate—a crucial oxidizer in solid rocket fuel—it becomes a controlled substance under the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). “Ammonium perchlorate is the material that was used in the solid rocket propellants of the Space Shuttle,” explained Andrea Sella, a professor of inorganic chemistry at University College London. “There really aren’t very many alternative things that sodium perchlorate can be used for, aside from rocket propellants, fireworks, and fuel.”
While Iran has claimed to produce its own ammonium perchlorate, recent intelligence suggests domestic production has struggled to meet demand. Defense analyst Fabian Hinz noted that “Iran’s solid propellant production infrastructure has dramatically expanded in the last few years – and potentially even since October 7, [2023].” If supply bottlenecks have emerged, securing large-scale sodium perchlorate shipments from China would be a logical step for Tehran.
Iran’s missile program, battered but not broken, is showing signs of a swift comeback, thanks in part to Chinese chemical supplies. Western governments now face mounting pressure to curb such transactions, whether through diplomatic engagement or additional economic countermeasures.
China’s role in Iran’s rearmament could also complicate Beijing’s broader diplomatic strategy. “Beijing risks compromising its own interests in the Middle East by supplying Iran and the Houthis, as it is bolstering their ability to target not only Israel but also Saudi Arabia and the UAE should a future conflict erupt,” said Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran. This raises important questions about how China will navigate its strategic partnerships in the region, particularly as it seeks to maintain strong economic ties with Gulf states while simultaneously supporting Iran’s military resurgence.
ACZ Editor: China continues to support foes of the U.S., adding chaos and angling for more control and more influence.