The strenghtening relationship between North Korea and Russia is sparking concerns, with US officials asserting that China, despite its silence, is increasingly uneasy about this alliance. Kurt Campbell, the US Deputy Secretary of State, recently highlighted these dynamics during a seminar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. His remarks have fueled speculation about whether China’s strategic calculus is being upended by the deepening military and economic cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow.

Why Are US Officials Claiming China Is Nervous?

At the heart of the US narrative is the assertion that China views the Russia-North Korea partnership as potentially destabilizing. North Korea has reportedly sent over 10,000 troops to support Russia’s efforts in Ukraine, while Russia is reciprocating with military technology and economic support. This development complicates Beijing’s position as it navigates its relationships with two key allies. According to Campbell, discussions with Chinese officials revealed surprise and concern over North Korea’s actions, suggesting Beijing may not be fully aware of the extent of Pyongyang’s engagement with Moscow.

Additionally, there is evidence that China’s discomfort stems from the broader implications of this alliance. A strengthened Russia-North Korea axis could embolden Pyongyang to take actions that destabilize the Korean Peninsula or challenge US allies like Japan and South Korea. Such moves might inadvertently accelerate efforts by Washington to bolster its alliances in East Asia—a scenario Beijing is eager to avoid.

Evidence Supporting US Claims

Several factors lend credence to the idea that China is unsettled by these developments:

1. China’s Silence: Despite its usual vocal stance on international issues, Beijing has remained conspicuously quiet about the alliance between North Korea and Russia. Analysts, like Dennis Wilder, a former CIA official, interpret this as indicative of unease rather than indifference.
2. Symbolic Diplomatic Gestures: China’s recent decision to remove a buoy near Japan’s exclusive economic zone, a longstanding point of contention, is seen as a strategic olive branch. This move could signal Beijing’s attempt to mitigate tensions with Tokyo and avoid further alignment between Japan and the US.
3. Strategic Ramifications: Military experts, such as Adm. Samuel Paparo of the US Indo-Pacific Command, warn that Russia’s support for North Korea’s missile and submarine programs could disrupt regional stability. If unchecked, this could strengthen US alliances in East Asia, potentially isolating China further.
4. Internal Debate: Within China, academics and military analysts appear divided on how to address the growing alliance. While some see it as a threat to regional stability, others argue it could bolster an authoritarian bloc that undermines US-led global norms.

Skepticism and Alternative Perspectives

Not everyone agrees with the US narrative. Some observers argue that the idea of a rift between China and Russia is exaggerated or even wishful thinking. Andrew Shearer, an Australian intelligence expert, cautions against assuming Beijing is genuinely uneasy. He contends that China’s substantial military and economic support for Russia during the Ukraine war suggests a pragmatic alignment that outweighs any discomfort over North Korea’s actions.

Similarly, analysts like Professor Emi Mifune of Komazawa University argue that China benefits strategically from a strengthened Russia. If Russia’s partnership with North Korea weakens Western influence in Ukraine, it could bolster Beijing’s position in its quest to assert dominance over Taiwan and other disputed territories.

Wishful Thinking or Strategic Reality?

US officials may see an opportunity to exploit perceived fissures between China, Russia, and North Korea, but this strategy is not without risks. The trio has shown resilience in forming alliances that challenge US interests, and China has a track record of leveraging its influence over both Russia and North Korea to maintain strategic advantages.

Ultimately, the notion of a nervous China might reflect more of a strategic hope than a definitive reality. While there are signs of discomfort in Beijing, the alliance between Russia and North Korea could also serve China’s long-term goals by fostering an authoritarian bloc capable of resisting Western dominance.

ACZ Editor: We have long considered the Biden Administration to be weak and incompentent, and we believe this is wishful thinking in its entirety. China is already North Korea’s largest (and almost only) trading partner, and they have a mutual defencse pact. We believe that this is a move to counter Trump. As you may recall, Trump actually developed a relationship with North Korean ruler Kim Jung Un that was bordering on cordial. A deepening of this relationship would be a major problem, so Russia and China are attempting to raise his importance, to retain his loyalty, in anticipation of Trump’s return.