For nearly two centuries, the United States has viewed the Caribbean as a crucial strategic zone, maintaining a firm grip on its influence in the region. Through the Monroe Doctrine, first articulated by President James Monroe in 1823, Washington sought to prevent foreign powers from meddling in the Western Hemisphere. While this doctrine initially targeted European colonial ambitions, today, the biggest external force shaping the region is China—a nation whose economic, military, and political influence is growing at an unprecedented rate.

In recent years, China has poured billions of dollars into infrastructure, trade, and diplomatic efforts across the Caribbean, raising concerns that Beijing is attempting to turn the region into a “Chinese lake.” While the U.S. once intervened in Latin America and the Caribbean to counter European and Soviet influence, it now faces a different kind of challenge—one that relies not on military force, but on economic dominance and strategic investments.

With Washington scaling back its financial commitments to the region, many Caribbean nations are increasingly looking toward China as an alternative partner. Some U.S. experts warn that this shift could have long-term geopolitical and military consequences, affecting everything from regional security to trade routes and diplomatic alliances.

A Shift in Power: China’s Growing Economic Footprint

China’s presence in the Caribbean has expanded rapidly, outpacing U.S. influence in multiple areas. Between 2002 and 2019, Chinese trade with the Caribbean grew from $1 billion to $8 billion, with Chinese exports making up the majority of this trade. In comparison, the United States has been cutting back its economic aid and development programs.

The House Foreign Affairs Committee has identified several major Chinese projects in the Caribbean, including:

• A $3 billion deep-water port on Grand Bahama, just 55 miles from Florida.
• A $600 million investment in the Dominican Republic’s electricity grid.
• $2.1 billion in infrastructure projects in Jamaica, including roads and energy developments.
• $773 million in investments in Suriname.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure program that many critics see as a tool for economic and political leverage, has been embraced by ten Caribbean nations: Cuba, Suriname, Guyana, Trinidad & Tobago, Grenada, Barbados, Dominica, Antigua & Barbuda, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica.

According to Evan Ellis, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, this growing economic relationship is not just about trade. While Chinese companies may primarily seek commercial gains, Beijing is well aware of the strategic opportunities such investments create.

“Although I don’t believe that Chinese companies pursue presence in the region principally because of the military value, the military opportunities that such commercial presence, and political and military relationships potentially provide in time of war, is obvious to the People’s Liberation Army and the Chinese government,” Ellis told Newsweek.

U.S. Retrenchment: A “Huge Gift” to China

While China has been expanding its footprint in the Caribbean, U.S. engagement in the region has been declining. The U.S. Agency for International Development, which has historically played a key role in funding development programs and supporting democratic institutions, has faced major budget cuts in recent years.

The Trump administration reduced USAID staffing and signaled its intent to shut down the agency entirely. Experts warn that this could severely weaken Washington’s ability to counter China’s growing influence.

Christopher Sabatini, a Latin America specialist at Chatham House, described these cuts as “an own goal” that effectively handed China a significant advantage.

“That money did just hand the Chinese a huge gift because those are Chinese allies,” Sabatini said. “It sends a signal that the U.S. simply isn’t interested in extending a hand.”

Meanwhile, Alan Mendoza, executive director of the Henry Jackson Society, noted that the U.S. still has tools at its disposal to push back against China’s advance.

“The Trump administration could easily employ a carrot and stick approach to roll this back, however, by offering trade and investment inducements of its own while making clear the consequences of ignoring a generous offer,” Mendoza explained.

The Taiwan Factor: China’s Diplomatic Push

China’s involvement in the Caribbean is also tied to its efforts to undermine Taiwan’s international standing.

Historically, many Caribbean and Central American nations recognized Taiwan rather than China. But since 2018, Panama, the Dominican Republic, and Nicaragua have all severed ties with Taiwan, opting instead for economic partnerships with Beijing.

Christopher Sabatini emphasized that this is part of a long-term strategy by China to gain allies on the world stage.

“It wasn’t an immediate military threat,” Sabatini explained. “There was a larger long-term plan of picking a team, stacking up chips.”

Military and Strategic Concerns: How Real Is the Threat?

China’s growing presence in the Caribbean has also raised concerns about potential military implications.

• Chinese police and military training programs in the region have significantly increased, with Caribbean defense forces frequently visiting China for training.
• Ports near the Panama Canal, some controlled by Hong Kong-based firms, have sparked fears that Beijing could interfere with U.S. shipping routes in a conflict.
• Reports of Chinese military surveillance in Cuba have led to speculation that Beijing is conducting intelligence operations just 90 miles from U.S. shores.

However, some analysts caution against overstating the threat. While China’s economic and diplomatic influence is undeniable, its ability to convert this into direct military control remains uncertain.

Christopher Sabatini noted that, while China’s presence around the Panama Canal could be concerning, military disruptions would not be as simple as some fear.

“The truth is much of that intelligence that could have been gathered could equally have been gathered by satellite imagery or even by setting up listening posts,” Sabatini said.

Could China Use Mass Migration to Weaken the U.S.?

Another growing concern is that China may be indirectly fueling migration crises that place pressure on U.S. resources.

The House Homeland Security Subcommittee reported a dramatic increase in encounters between U.S. law enforcement and Chinese illegal migrants, rising from 1,970 in 2022 to 24,376 in 2024.

Sabatini suggested that China sees mass migration from failing Caribbean and Latin American states as a way to tie down American resources.

“In the case of Haiti, or other failed states, China and Russia are more than happy to see those states continue to just collapse to send migrants, to send insecurity and drugs to the United States,” he explained.

Can the U.S. Push Back?

Experts argue that Washington still has the ability to counter China’s influence, but only if it actively engages with the region.

• Reinvesting in USAID and regional economic development programs could help maintain American influence.
• Providing competitive trade and investment opportunities would allow the U.S. to offer Caribbean nations an alternative to Chinese financing.
• Strengthening diplomatic and military cooperation could help reinforce security partnerships with Caribbean states.

Without these steps, China’s influence will only continue to expand, and the U.S. may find itself increasingly marginalized in its own hemisphere.

ACZ Editor: We always consider that whatever investments China makes within the U.S. spere is designed to increase influence to prepare for war. China is more than willing to buy their way into the hearts of evil and corrupt politicians, but history shows that these investments are a trap. The Biden administration failed miserably in this respect, but Trump seems to have a firmer grip on international maneuverings. Perhaps we can stop them.