In her address, Outpacing the PRC: Lessons Learned for Strategic Competition, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks provided a comprehensive overview of the strategies the United States must prioritize to maintain its global leadership in the face of rising competition from China. Speaking at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Hicks outlined four critical lessons: focusing on priorities, excelling in execution, leveraging competitive advantages, and managing actions and words to maintain deterrence without provoking conflict. Her speech offered a detailed look at the areas where China is advancing, the ways the U.S. can counter these developments, and the steps needed to outpace China in the long term.
Deputy Secretary Hicks made it clear that strategic competition does not mean conflict. “Instead,” she stated, “we want the [People’s Republic of China] leadership to wake up each day, consider the risks of aggression and think to themselves, ‘Today is not the day’—and for them to think that today, and every day, between now and 2027, in 2035, 2049, and beyond.” The emphasis is on maintaining peace through strength, a principle that has underpinned U.S. foreign policy for decades.
Areas Where China is Gaining
China’s rapid advancements in multiple domains have created significant challenges for the United States. Hicks highlighted the following areas where China has made notable progress:
- Military Modernization
- Over the past several decades, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has focused on developing capabilities to counter U.S. strengths. This includes advancements in anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategies designed to limit U.S. military movement in the western Pacific.
- Hicks noted, “The PLA’s modernization has been rapid, ambitious, and laser-focused on us.” Investments in hypersonic weapons, missile technology, and a modernized navy underscore Beijing’s determination to challenge U.S. military dominance.
- Industrial Capacity and Intellectual Property
- China’s vast industrial base allows it to produce advanced military hardware at scale and speed. Combined with intellectual property theft, this industrial capacity enables China to quickly adopt and replicate advanced technologies.
- Hicks warned that China’s methods make it a “talented fast follower,” emphasizing the need for the U.S. to “be careful about what we say and what we show, because a long-term investment can only be revealed once.”
- Technological Development
- Significant progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and data integration has enabled China to automate various military functions. However, Hicks emphasized that the U.S. approach—prioritizing human oversight—offers ethical and practical advantages.
- “Our approach reflects our ethics and democratic principles,” Hicks said. “We don’t use data and AI to censor, repress, or disempower people.”
- Economic and Diplomatic Leverage
- Through economic influence, China has expanded its global reach, reshaping international institutions to align with its strategic interests. Its Belt and Road Initiative and other programs have strengthened Beijing’s position on the world stage.
How the U.S. Can Keep Up and Outpace China
Deputy Secretary Hicks detailed a multi-faceted strategy to outcompete China. Her recommendations are rooted in four foundational lessons:
Stay Focused on Priorities
Hicks emphasized the importance of maintaining focus amid competing global challenges. “The world will always try to distract you, but whether you get distracted is entirely up to you,” she said. For the Department of Defense (DoD), this means aligning resources with the primary goal of countering China’s strategic ambitions. Trade-offs are inevitable, and Hicks highlighted the need to prioritize deployments and capabilities that align with the Indo-Pacific strategy.
The challenge posed by China, she explained, has been decades in the making. “Since [the 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review], the PRC worked with focus and determination to build a modern military, looking to blunt longstanding U.S. operational advantages,” Hicks said. Recognizing this, the U.S. must stay committed to its strategy, adjusting as needed but always with a clear sense of purpose.
Execution is Paramount
The ability to execute strategies effectively is critical. Hicks highlighted numerous examples of U.S. advancements aimed at maintaining a competitive edge:
- Undersea Warfare: Through the AUKUS partnership with Australia and the U.K., the U.S. has strengthened its undersea capabilities. Investments in the submarine industrial base total approximately $10 billion over four years.
- Space Dominance: “In 2024, American space launches lofted more satellites than China has throughout its history,” Hicks said. These advancements are supported by a dynamic commercial space industry.
- AI and Data Integration: By leveraging superior technology, talent, and democratic principles, the U.S. has developed advanced decision-making tools that enhance military operations. Hicks noted that “Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control” is now a reality, enabling faster and more effective military responses.
Hicks also emphasized the importance of the Replicator initiative, which aims to deploy thousands of autonomous systems across multiple domains. “By driving both technology change and culture change,” she said, “Replicator is showing that DoD can move fast to shape the battlespace and equip our warfighters with what they need to win.”
Leverage Competitive Advantages
The U.S. holds several enduring advantages that must be fully utilized. Hicks emphasized the strength of alliances, stating, “Where we have partners of choice, our competitors only have bedfellows of last resort.” Key initiatives include:
- Strengthening Alliances: From Japan and South Korea to Australia, allies contribute to a formidable network of shared capabilities. “America’s friends and allies have been substantially contributing to the common defense,” Hicks said.
- Domestic Innovation: Collaboration with industry and academia has driven advancements in microelectronics, critical minerals, and other essential areas. Hicks highlighted the $375 billion invested in non-traditional defense companies from 2021 to 2024.
- Human Capital: The U.S. military’s all-volunteer force benefits from principles of mission command, enabling decentralized decision-making. “Our officers and senior enlisted leaders… are exceptional,” Hicks said, contrasting this with the PLA’s centralized structure.
Hicks urged caution in how the U.S. communicates its strategies and actions to avoid unnecessary escalation. “We want our operations, activities, investments, and messages to maintain deterrence—not needlessly provoke Beijing into starting a war,” she explained. Transparency and restraint are essential to maintaining stability while preparing for potential conflict.
Hicks concluded her address with a call to action, emphasizing the importance of continued vigilance and investment. “We must be forthright about how advanced the PRC’s military has become, then do our utmost to out-think, out-maneuver, and out-strategize them,” she said. This effort will require sustained focus, innovation, and collaboration across all sectors of American society.
While the challenges posed by China are significant, Hicks expressed confidence in the United States’ ability to lead. “We have an open society, a vibrant innovation ecosystem, and dependable allies,” she said. By leveraging these strengths, the U.S. can not only meet but exceed the challenges of strategic competition with China. Hicks’ message is clear: with focus, determination, and unity, America is well-positioned to secure its interests and uphold its values in the 21st century.
ACZ Editor: This was good insight, but her comments on how the U.S. needs to “communictate” highlights the timidity of the Biden Administration in dealing with China. Caving in to China’s bullying is not the answer. The U.S. needs to proclaim its values and maintain its alliances fortrightly, no matter the tantrums from Chinese officials.