The following is an excerpt from an Centrist Democracy Political Institute article by Lito Monico C. Lorenzana. They don’t publish often, but they are generally reflective of the Philippines political class, this one especially interesting.
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Beijing’s not so secret plan
As secret as the proceedings of the conclave were, those of China’s Politburo were not. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) document, principally authored by Xi Jinping himself entitled “A Resolution — to win the initiative in historic upheaval through decisive struggle” is a master plan to counter President Trump’s unilateral and irresponsible imposition of his tariffs. For Beijing, this is no longer a trade dispute resolvable through the “art of the deal.” These provocations are a casus belli. The CCP’s secret document is therefore an assertion of a full-blown trade war encompassing economic, diplomatic and military domains, in the classic Chinese discernment of “wei ji” — crisis as opportunity.
This classified document shared with the political leadership and subsequently leaked to Yuen Hongping, a former CCP insider now a dissident professor in exile was perhaps the Chinese inscrutable way of reaching out to Trump, a simpleton, being forewarned before he does another precipitate act.
The tariff onslaught caught the Chinese off guard, but their response was nonetheless quick. This document is Xi Jinping’s playbook with a full spectrum of sweeping strategies for confrontation with America. The following are excerpts from Chinese Australian journalist Cheng Lei and Heng He, a China analyst and commentator. Briefly the document outlined five strategies to counter any eventualities.
Five strategies
Taking advantage of US allies’ anger and frustration, Beijing fashioned its first strategy to build a united front, targeting Germany, France, UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Australia. And if Trump refuses to back down, India and Vietnam will be further enticed. This coalition of aggrieved countries could isolate the US pushing it out of the globalization process and unseat it from economic dominance.
The second strategy is an accelerating two-step “financial war plans.” First is internal, targeting the Chinese political elite’s foreign assets; keeping track of foreign deposits held by party officials and executives working for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for amounts exceeding $200,000. Trump’s insistence on his tariffs will result in a decoupling, a breakdown of relationship with China, triggering a massive transference of funds from the US back to China or to any neutral country. Non-compliance is a treasonable act to be met with severe punishment.
The second step is directed externally towards the destabilization of the US financial markets which could trigger a meltdown deadlier than that of the 2008 financial crisis. Chinese officials on short notice are to dump $1 trillion in US treasury bonds and simultaneously short $2 trillion in US corporate equity and debt securities. Japan, which has bigger holdings than China, could be drawn into this financial morass precipitating a domino effect collapsing US markets. This could result in a world economic recession or worse.
The third strategy are domestic measures for a prolonged economic war strengthening China and its citizens’ economic self-reliance, a drastic domestic market circulation system — euphemism for government rationing of food, meat, grain, vegetables, etc. China, an authoritarian government, has a better chance of successfully inflicting severe hardship on its citizenry compared to the US or democratic regimes — where individual rights and privileges are paramount and street protests could be disastrous. Rationing is the CCP’s secret weapon as it did after the Cultural Revolution in the 1970s when the economy was decimated; not to mention the great famine under the Great Leader Mao.
The fourth strategy calls for the deepening of partnership with Iran, Russia and North Korea, natural foes of democratic America and applying greater influence in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand, countries already susceptible to Marxist ideals on the concept of “economic power shaping political power.” And more importantly driving a wedge between NATO countries and allies. Particular emphasis would be given to the seething anger over Trump’s disrespect of Canada, inviting it to be a subordinate state to the US. This classic “divide and weaken” relationship with America’s old allies will eventually undermine US global leadership.
The first island chain countries that have been preventing China from extending its influence toward the Eastern Pacific can be subverted. The CCP must work to weaken US traditional relations with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, eroding and isolating America, breaking its status as global policeman, ending its 80-year post-war dominance.
The last strategy involves Taiwan where confrontation becomes inevitable if the economic war intensifies. Xi is convinced he has geography on his side giving him the home court advantage, carefully choosing the timing while the US is putting out fires everywhere. Secret documents call for Xi’s full implementation of his strategic vision, preparing for a military showdown with the US in the Taiwan Strait.
In this secret document, this “new type of conventional war is fought under a full spectrum information warfare backed by a credible nuclear deterrent.” In the likelihood that the US intervenes China with its superior and more numerous missiles and growing military might, can destroy military bases in Japan, South Korea (with ally North Korea), the Philippines and Guam. US forces are expected to retreat east to Hawaii, effectively reducing the US to a regional power.
The CCP’s final declaration in that secret document states: “Only by bravely facing the storm can we achieve great victory,” concluding that by defeating Trump’s total offensive beginning with the tariff war, the CCP’s vision of a community of common destiny will become the global path forward.
Reaction of majority CCP leadership
Professor Yuen said, “The CCP hopes that the resolution would stabilize internal moral order after the shock of Trump’s tariff war.” But the result instead was the opposite.
This document sparked a wave of extreme anxiety throughout the CCP bureaucracy. Imagine those officials with children and assets in the US who must now repatriate to China. This rule affects 80 to 90 percent of the officials. Most of them have assets abroad. This has turned many of them against Xi’s leadership.
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ACZ Comments: If you read this website regularly you might agree with us that China has been at war with the U.S. for quite some time, that the five strategies outlines pre-date the current Trump Administration and the tariffs.
Xi’s plan is not surprising, and doubtless has other facets and details unknown. And doubtless it was leaked on purpose to allow people to see certain of China’s moves and perhaps take sides.
The Philippines has been victimized by China’s expansion plans, and will be wary. But they will react to these strategies according, as will others.