Cardinal Robert Prevost, now Pope Leo XIV, has made history as the first American to be elected pope. His election on May 8, 2025, sent waves of excitement through St. Peter’s Square and Catholic communities around the world. But as cheers rang out in Rome, the Communist Party of China was already preparing a test for the new pontiff—one that could define the early years of his leadership.

The Vatican’s relationship with China is complex, shaped by decades of state control, persecution, and controversial agreements. Pope Leo XIV inherits this diplomatic puzzle at a moment when religious freedom in China is under growing threat, and Beijing appears determined to force his hand.

A New Pope with a Global Perspective

When Pope Leo XIV stepped out onto the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica, his first words to the world were simple: “Peace be with you all.” He added that the Church must be “a missionary Church, building bridges, dialogue, always open to receiving with open arms for everyone.” These words reflected his long experience working in marginalized communities, particularly during his years as a bishop in Peru. But the hope of open arms may be tested by the iron grip of China’s Communist leadership.

The Chinese government wasted no time pressing its advantage. During the interregnum between popes, state-controlled dioceses in Shanghai and Xinxiang voted for new bishops from a list of candidates approved by Beijing. This maneuver directly challenges the Vatican’s authority and puts immediate pressure on Pope Leo to decide whether to recognize bishops who may be more loyal to the state than to the Church.

The Legacy of the 2018 Agreement

In 2018, Pope Francis approved a historic agreement with China allowing the government to play a role in the appointment of bishops. Supporters said this would protect the Church’s survival in China, but critics saw it as a compromise of moral authority.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, one of the architects of that agreement and a leading candidate in the recent conclave, had argued the deal would “reunify the Chinese Church.” However, the experience of Bishop Joseph Zhang Weizhu shows the deep cost of cooperation with an authoritarian regime.

Bishop Zhang, who was approved by the Vatican and consecrated in 1991, refused to follow state demands. He led an underground seminary for future priests. In 2021, government officials raided the seminary and arrested Bishop Zhang while he was still recovering from cancer surgery. As of 2025, he remains held in an undisclosed location. The Hudson Institute’s Nina Shea said the bishop has been held “without due process,” calling his detention a clear case of religious persecution.

Now, the Chinese government wants to replace him with Father Li Jianlin, who reportedly “has a history of alignment with the Communist Party” and supported a directive that bans minors from attending Mass in Henan province, according to the Catholic News Agency. This proposed appointment would push state influence even deeper into the Chinese Catholic Church.

Crackdown on Christians Intensifies

Recent changes to Chinese law have made religious life even more difficult. New regulations that went into effect on May 1 prohibit foreign Christians from preaching, evangelizing, or hosting any religious events without government approval. In practice, this means most forms of religious outreach by foreigners are effectively banned.

Foreigners are also prohibited from importing more than “personal use quantities” of religious materials, including Bibles. Bringing in more than a few items requires special approval at customs. Additional restrictions ban foreign nationals from starting religious groups, organizing religious education, inviting Chinese people to join a religion, or accepting donations for religious purposes.

These laws are part of a broader effort by the Chinese government to eliminate any influence over religion that is not tightly controlled by the state. The government warns against using religion to “undermine China’s national unity, ethnic solidarity, religious harmony and social stability”—broad and vague terms that allow officials to shut down virtually any religious activity that doesn’t align with Communist Party goals.

According to Open Doors, an organization that supports persecuted Christians, “These regulations make sharing the gospel harder in China,” and they create increased pressure on domestic religious organizations as well.

The Reality for China’s Christians

Though there have been many claims that Christianity is rapidly growing in China, recent data tells a different story. A comprehensive study of nationally representative surveys over the last two decades shows that Christianity has likely plateaued. While Christianity surged after the Cultural Revolution ended and religious restrictions were relaxed in the 1980s and 1990s, that growth has not continued into the 21st century.

Surveys such as the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) and the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) show that only about 2 to 3 percent of adults in China identify as Christian. In fact, younger Chinese are less likely than older generations to identify with the faith. In the 2018 CGSS, just 0.9 percent of those aged 18 to 34 said they were Christian, compared to 2.8 percent of those aged 55 and older.

This trend is especially troubling given that government policy actively discourages religious education and bans children from attending worship services. The lack of younger believers suggests that the Chinese government’s strategy may be working to slow or reverse the growth of Christianity.

In Hong Kong, once a place of relative religious freedom, even Catholic figures have been targeted. Jimmy Lai, a Catholic journalist and vocal critic of the Communist Party, has been imprisoned and denied communion. According to a 2025 report by the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, Chinese authorities have “repeatedly detained, forcibly disappeared, or refused to disclose the whereabouts of underground Catholic clergy.”

A Challenge to Papal Authority

Pope Leo XIV faces a serious test. The Chinese government is actively trying to shape the leadership of the Church within its borders, and it is doing so while one of the Vatican’s own bishops remains imprisoned. If the pope recognizes Beijing’s handpicked bishops, he risks legitimizing state oppression. If he rejects them, the Church in China may be pushed even further underground.

As Nina Shea warns, “Beijing now seeks to replace Bishop Zhang with someone who supported a ban on minors attending Mass.” The Church’s willingness to accept such an appointment, she says, would mark a betrayal of those who have “endured great suffering for refusing to bow to the Communists since they took power.”

The actions of China in the final days of the papal interregnum are not coincidental. They appear to be timed to take advantage of the transition in Rome, hoping to force the new pope into a corner before he has a chance to establish his authority. “Beijing seems to view the Holy See’s vacancy as an opportunity to make provocative appointments,” Shea added. “That ought to tell the next pope something about the Faustian bargain the Vatican has struck with the Communists.”

A Decision with Global Impact

Pope Leo XIV has spoken about building bridges, welcoming all people, and standing with the suffering. Those values will now be tested in one of the most politically sensitive and morally urgent situations facing the Church today. His decision on China’s proposed bishops will not only affect the lives of Catholics in China but could also define his legacy.

As he begins his papacy with a wave of hope and global attention, the question remains: will Pope Leo XIV speak out boldly for those who cannot speak for themselves, or will the Church continue its quiet diplomacy and risk losing credibility among the faithful?

The answer may shape the Catholic Church’s presence in China—and its moral authority on the world stage—for years to come.