A War That Changed the Balance

When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he likely expected a quick victory that would restore Russian influence and demonstrate Moscow’s power. Four years later, however, the war has evolved into something far more difficult and costly. According to recent reporting, even Chinese President Xi Jinping may now believe Putin could ultimately regret the decision.

That possibility hangs heavily over Putin’s latest trip to Beijing. Arriving only days after President Donald Trump completed a high-profile visit to China, Putin enters a summit with Xi under very different circumstances. Trump arrived to state banquets, major agreements, and promises of future cooperation. Putin arrives needing reassurance, economic support, and perhaps confirmation that China has not quietly shifted closer to Washington.

Why Putin Is Going to Beijing

Putin’s May 19-20 visit marks the second meeting between the Russian and Chinese leaders within a year. Officially, the Kremlin says the two nations will discuss economic cooperation and major regional and international issues. But beneath the diplomatic language lies a deeper concern: Russia’s increasing dependence on China.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine left Moscow isolated from much of the West and under heavy sanctions. Since 2022, China has become Russia’s primary trading partner and largest customer for Russian oil and gas. As European demand collapsed, Beijing emerged as a lifeline for Moscow’s economy. Bilateral trade surged to record levels, with China absorbing more than a quarter of Russia’s exports.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly admitted the stakes of the visit, telling reporters: “We have very serious expectations for this visit,” while describing efforts to deepen the countries’ “privileged and strategic partnership.”

The Kremlin appears particularly interested in energy deals. Putin recently said Russia was nearing a “serious” agreement with China involving oil and gas cooperation, stating: “We are at a very advanced stage of agreement on making a serious, very substantial step forward in the gas and oil sector.” He added that if negotiations were finalized during the trip, “I will be very pleased.”

Russia needs these agreements. Moscow recently slashed its economic growth forecast as Ukrainian strikes damaged oil infrastructure and export terminals that help fund the war. In practical terms, Beijing is no longer merely a partner. It increasingly looks like Russia’s economic stabilizer.

What Does It Mean That Putin May “Regret” Ukraine?

The most striking development surrounding the summit is a report that Xi privately told Trump that Putin may one day regret invading Ukraine. According to people familiar with the U.S. assessment of Trump and Xi’s recent meeting in Beijing, Xi said Putin “might end up regretting his invasion of Ukraine.”

The comment matters because it reportedly goes further than Xi has in the past. One person familiar with earlier conversations between Xi and former President Joe Biden noted that while Xi previously engaged in “frank and direct” discussions about Ukraine, he had not openly offered an assessment of Putin’s decision-making.

But what exactly does “regret” mean in this context?

The reporting offers clues. The war has become a grinding stalemate after four years, with Ukraine proving increasingly effective at drone warfare and attacks deep inside Russia. Kyiv has struck oil infrastructure, military positions, and targets near Moscow itself. Ukraine’s ability to reinvent battlefield tactics has complicated Russia’s military campaign and imposed growing economic costs.

At the same time, Russia’s invasion appears to have weakened Moscow strategically in ways Putin may not have anticipated. Before Ukraine, Russia projected influence across energy markets, diplomacy, and geopolitical partnerships. Today, Moscow seems increasingly dependent on Beijing while struggling to maintain its old position.

Has Trump Taken Advantage of Russia’s Distraction?

Another possible interpretation of Xi’s remark is geopolitical rather than purely military.

Trump’s recent Beijing visit showcased the United States rebuilding ties with China in a visible and productive way. The trip reportedly produced billions in agricultural purchases, a major aircraft order, and plans for continued high-level diplomacy. Xi described the U.S.-China relationship as the world’s most important and said the two countries should view one another as partners rather than rivals.

For Putin, this creates a difficult reality.

Several analysts quoted in the reporting suggested that Putin’s Beijing visit is partly about reassurance. Russia reportedly wants confidence that improving ties between Washington and Beijing will not alter the “strategic triangle” that has kept China and Russia aligned. Kremlin officials have even said Putin hopes to receive direct updates from Xi about China’s talks with the United States.

Viewed this way, Xi’s suggestion that Putin may regret the invasion carries a deeper meaning. The war may have trapped Russia in a costly conflict that drained resources, weakened leverage, and created opportunities for Trump to move into diplomatic spaces Moscow once expected to dominate.

While Russia focuses on Ukraine, Trump appears active across multiple fronts, rebuilding ties with Beijing, helping broker temporary ceasefires, and shaping discussions involving global institutions like the International Criminal Court. Meanwhile, Putin arrives in Beijing seeking energy contracts and reassurance that China remains fully committed.

The Price of Strategic Overreach

Putin continues to publicly frame Russia and China as partners providing global stability. He recently declared that “interaction between such nations as China and Russia undoubtedly serves as a factor of deterrence and stability,” adding that Moscow welcomes constructive engagement between Washington and Beijing because “we stand only to benefit from this.”

Yet the symbolism surrounding this visit tells another story.

Trump came to Beijing first, winning economic agreements and public diplomatic momentum. Putin follows days later, asking for cooperation from a partner that now holds considerable leverage over Russia’s economy and future.

If Xi truly believes Putin may regret Ukraine, the regret may not simply concern battlefield losses. It may reflect a broader realization that the invasion tied Russia down at exactly the wrong moment, leaving Moscow increasingly dependent, strategically constrained, and watching as others reshape relationships Russia once counted on.

ACZ Editor: Our theory is that Putin could easily have ended the war within a few months, but chose to stay because it was advantageous at the time and gave him a chance to torture Europe. But he lost a lot of influence in the world in the mean time. Plus it put Russia much deeper into debt with China, financially and politically.