Newly appointed U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is embarking on his first diplomatic tour, visiting five Latin American nations: Panama, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic. While the trip is officially framed around immigration and economic partnerships, a central theme is the Trump administration’s intent to counter China’s growing influence in the region. Rubio’s visit signals a major shift in U.S. foreign policy, emphasizing Latin America as a strategic battleground against Beijing’s expansion.

China’s Expanding Influence in Latin America

Over the past two decades, China has established itself as a dominant force in Latin America, investing billions in infrastructure, energy, and trade. Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has secured diplomatic and economic ties with several nations, displacing U.S. influence in the region. Panama, the Dominican Republic, and El Salvador have all shifted their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in recent years, underscoring the depth of Beijing’s engagement.

China’s economic expansion is evident in multiple ways. Between 2000 and 2020, trade between China and Latin America surged from $12 billion to over $315 billion, with expectations that it could more than double by 2035. Chinese enterprises have heavily invested in the manufacturing, telecommunications, and energy sectors, creating economic dependency in some nations. “Political actors in DC hold a wide range of opinions toward China’s activities in Latin America, from strategic competitor to potential collaborator, but over the past decade attitudes have edged toward rivalry,” said Adrian Hearn, a professor at Melbourne University.

In addition to trade, China has made strategic moves to control key assets, including ports, energy resources, and telecommunications networks. In Panama, a Hong Kong-based company operates two major ports along the Panama Canal, a development that has alarmed Washington. Rubio has warned that in the event of a conflict, China could leverage its presence to disrupt U.S. shipping routes. “If the government in China tells them to shut down the Panama Canal, they will have to. That is a direct threat,” Rubio stated ahead of his visit.

Rubio’s Strategy for Countering China

Rubio’s diplomatic tour is intended to reaffirm U.S. ties with Latin American nations and provide an alternative to Chinese investment. His approach includes:

• Economic Engagement: The U.S. plans to boost trade agreements and infrastructure investments to counter China’s financial influence.
• Security Partnerships: Strengthening military and security alliances to limit Chinese involvement in critical sectors.
• Diplomatic Pressure: Encouraging regional leaders to reassess their ties with Beijing and prioritize cooperation with Washington.

Beyond economic and security concerns, Rubio is expected to pressure Latin American nations to curtail their reliance on Chinese telecommunications companies, which U.S. officials claim pose cybersecurity risks. Mauricio Claver-Carone, the Trump administration’s special envoy for Latin America, emphasized the importance of the effort. “This increasingly creeping presence of Chinese companies and actors throughout the Canal Zone, in everything from ports and logistics to telecommunications infrastructure, is very concerning, not only frankly to the national security of the United States, but frankly to the national security of Panama and to the entire western hemisphere,” he said.

Panama Canal: A Flashpoint in U.S.-China Rivalry

The Panama Canal remains a focal point of Rubio’s visit. President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested that the U.S. should “take back” the canal, a statement that has sparked backlash in Panama. President Jose Raul Mulino firmly rejected any possibility of renegotiating Panama’s sovereignty over the waterway. “The canal belongs to Panama,” Mulino declared ahead of Rubio’s arrival.

Despite Mulino’s stance, Washington remains deeply concerned about China’s foothold in the region. The Trump administration views the canal as a strategic asset vital to U.S. national security, and Rubio will likely seek to limit Beijing’s economic reach in Panama and other neighboring countries. “It’s a technicality, but in reality, if China wanted to obstruct traffic in the Panama Canal, they could,” Rubio told Megyn Kelly in an interview.

Regional Reactions and Criticism

Rubio’s mission is receiving mixed reactions. Supporters argue that countering China’s influence is essential for maintaining U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Mauricio Claver-Carone stated, “This administration will not allow China to turn Latin America into its backyard.”

However, critics see the initiative as heavy-handed and unlikely to succeed. Many Latin American leaders welcome Chinese investments, which provide significant economic benefits with fewer political strings attached. Some analysts warn that Rubio’s aggressive rhetoric may push these nations closer to Beijing rather than away from it. Euclides Tapia, professor of international relations at the University of Panama, suggested that Trump’s real goal was “for Panama to reduce its relations with China to a minimum.”

Additionally, the Trump administration’s freeze on foreign aid has undermined its ability to offer attractive alternatives to Chinese funding. “If the U.S. is serious about countering China, it needs to invest in the region rather than simply criticize Beijing,” said Joseph Humire, a national security expert.

Rubio’s visit marks the beginning of an intensified U.S. strategy to reclaim influence in Latin America. Whether his diplomatic push will yield results remains uncertain. The region’s leaders must weigh their longstanding ties with Washington against the economic incentives offered by Beijing.

Panama has made it clear that it has no interest in altering its relationship with China. Meanwhile, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador have already aligned themselves with Beijing, making U.S. efforts to reverse course more difficult. “Latin American efforts to balance relations with the U.S. and China resemble those of Australia to do the same,” said Professor Hearn. “The political calculus of developing nations often comes down to ‘checkbook diplomacy,’ that is, which combination of alliances will attract the most economic aid and the best trade arrangements.”

ACZ Editor: The U.S. should definitely invest more in Latin America and look to boost their economies to a more competitive level. China is taking advantage there, flooding them with cheap goods and building a trade imbalance to increase their influence. We have taken Latin America for granted for too long.