Signs of a shift spark global speculation, but experts urge caution in interpreting what it really means

For more than a decade, Xi Jinping has dominated Chinese politics like no leader since Mao Zedong. After eliminating term limits and consolidating power across the Communist Party, the military, and the presidency, Xi was widely seen as “leader for life.” But a recent series of unusual developments has triggered speculation that he may be preparing for a transition—possibly even a quiet exit from power.

Not everyone is convinced. While new regulations and Xi’s recent absences have caught the attention of international observers, many experts caution that it may be far too early to assume that the era of Xi is ending. Instead, they suggest Xi could be adjusting the mechanics of his rule, not abandoning it.

New Rules Signal a Change in Governance

On June 30, China’s 24-member Politburo approved a new set of regulations governing the operation of top-level Communist Party coordinating institutions. These so-called “party coordinative institutes” include powerful bodies that oversee policies related to the economy, national security, technology, and foreign affairs.

According to a report by China’s official Xinhua news agency, the goal of the new rules is to “standardize the responsibilities, establishment, and functioning” of these party bodies. The announcement emphasized that these changes are meant to improve coordination and leadership on “major national tasks.”

Some observers view this move as an early sign of succession planning. A political analyst quoted anonymously by the South China Morning Post suggested, “The rules may be set up to regulate the bodies because it’s a key time for power transition.”

However, other experts are not so sure. Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, offered a more cautious interpretation, explaining that the changes could simply be an attempt to make China’s governance more consistent. “Especially because [Xi] remains himself the chairman of so many of these coordination organs… all of which need his time and attention, which is not limitless,” Yang said.

Xi’s Absences Raise Questions

Fueling the speculation was Xi’s unexpected decision to skip the 2025 BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro. For the first time since taking power, Xi did not attend the gathering of major emerging economies. Instead, Premier Li Qiang led the Chinese delegation, just as he had at the 2023 G20 summit in India—another event Xi skipped.

Xi also disappeared from public view for two weeks before the BRICS summit, prompting further rumors. His wife, Peng Liyuan, has not made any public appearances in months. Observers have also noted that Xi has significantly reduced the size of his personal security team. These changes have sparked concern among China watchers about whether Xi is still fully in control.

Geopolitical analyst Gregory Copley told media outlets that he is hearing rumors of a serious internal challenge to Xi’s authority. “There are signs that Xi is no longer the unchallenged leader of China,” he said. “Some of the generals who were closest to him are now disappearing. That suggests a fight is taking place inside the Party.”

Despite these signs, most experts believe Xi is not stepping down—at least not yet. Instead, they argue he may be restructuring how power is used and delegated in China. Victor Shih, an expert in Chinese elite politics at the University of California San Diego, said the new regulations are likely meant to ensure that Xi’s policies are still carried out, even if he pays less attention to daily operations. “It does seem that Xi might pay less attention to day-to-day details,” Shih explained, “which necessitates a policing mechanism to ensure that his policy priorities are still being carried out by lower-level officials.”

Since 2012, Xi has chaired or created dozens of high-level committees and commissions. Many began as “leading small groups” and have now evolved into “central commissions,” absorbing the powers of government agencies. These bodies oversee everything from cyberspace to financial regulation to Hong Kong affairs. In 2023, Xi began assigning more of these roles to top deputies. Premier Li Qiang now leads the Central Financial Commission, and Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang heads the Central Science and Technology Commission. Xi’s chief of staff, Cai Qi, took over the powerful Cyberspace Affairs Commission.

Some believe these moves could be the start of a controlled succession plan. Others say it is more likely that Xi is streamlining the massive bureaucracy that he himself built.

Who Might Replace Xi?

If Xi is preparing to step down, the question of succession becomes urgent. One name that keeps coming up is Wang Yang, a respected technocrat who served in various top roles before quietly retiring. Multiple reports suggest he may be brought back this fall to begin a transition. Hu Chunhua, a longtime rival of Xi’s who was blocked from becoming premier, may also reappear. He is aligned with former President Hu Jintao, who was famously escorted out of a party meeting in 2022—an incident seen as a public display of Xi’s dominance.

Another important figure is General Zhang Youxia, China’s top military officer and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. Analysts believe he may be key in securing support for any transition, especially if it involves a shift away from Xi’s personal rule.

Still, it’s worth noting that Xi has not clearly signaled any intention to retire. He has not named a successor, and all three of his top titles remain without term limits. Some observers think Xi may adopt a phased exit, stepping down from the presidency while keeping control over the party or the military.

Is This Really the End of the Xi Era?

Experts remain divided. Neil Thomas of the Asia Society Policy Institute believes that while Xi is delegating more tasks, it does not mean he is preparing to leave power. “This is more about conserving his energy for long-term strategic priorities than preparing for retirement,” Thomas said.

Others argue that what is happening could represent an internal deal: Xi agrees to exit quietly in exchange for protection for himself and his family. If true, this would mark a return to the more consensus-driven style of leadership that characterized China after Deng Xiaoping.

But that outcome is far from certain. China’s elite politics remain opaque, and rumors can spread easily in the absence of hard information. Xi has built his legacy around centralizing control. Giving it up would be a major reversal—and one that might not sit well with those who rose to power under him.

The flurry of recent changes in China’s political structure has raised eyebrows around the world. Xi’s absence from major summits, the new rules governing powerful party institutions, and the quiet rise of his deputies have all contributed to the growing sense that something is changing at the top.

But whether Xi is preparing to step down or simply adapting to new challenges remains unclear. What is certain is that global leaders, investors, and strategists will be watching closely as China approaches its next major Party Congress in 2027. Until then, talk of Xi’s departure remains speculation—plausible, intriguing, and important, but far from confirmed.

ACZ Editor: We are reporting this because it is circulating, but Xi’s life is way too opaque to have these kinds of rumors be true.