As the 2024 U.S. presidential election looms on November 5, a new and alarming threat has emerged. Intelligence officials warn that Russia, Iran, and China are not just working to influence the election results through disinformation, but may also attempt to incite violence in the chaotic days following the vote. The goal of these foreign actors is not necessarily to change the outcome of the election but to erode Americans’ trust in their democratic system, sowing division that could lead to unrest and violence.
U.S. intelligence agencies have confirmed that these foreign powers are using a range of sophisticated tactics to undermine the election. While the physical voting system itself is considered secure, the real danger lies in the influence campaigns designed to exploit America’s already fractured political landscape.
The Dark Motives of Foreign Actors
Russia, Iran, and China are not new to election interference. But this year, U.S. officials say the stakes are higher. In an increasingly divided America, these foreign powers see an opportunity to capitalize on discontent and distrust. As one official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) stated, “Foreign actors, particularly Russia, Iran, and China, remain intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans and undermine Americans’ confidence in the U.S. democratic system. These activities are consistent with what these actors perceive to be in their interests.”
Each country has its own motivations. Russia, which has been highly active in spreading disinformation, particularly wants to see former President Donald Trump back in the White House. According to intelligence reports, “Russia would prefer the former president to win and they would seek to more aggressively undermine the presidency of the then-president-elect” if Vice President Kamala Harris emerges victorious.
Iran, on the other hand, has a more personal vendetta against Trump, rooted in the conflict between the two nations during his presidency. Iran is likely to exploit any opportunity to damage Trump’s chances, and officials believe Iran “may try to incite violence like they did after the last presidential election.” In 2020, Iran was linked to a website that called for the assassination of U.S. election officials. While China’s role has been less direct, its focus remains on weakening America’s global influence by exploiting internal chaos.
Weaponizing Division and Misinformation
The most significant weapon in the arsenal of these foreign powers is not military, but informational. Disinformation campaigns, many driven by artificial intelligence, have flooded social media platforms, creating fake narratives that target both sides of the political spectrum. These efforts are aimed at deepening the divisions that already exist among Americans.
For example, Russia recently created a fake video smearing Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who is Harris’ running mate. The video accused Walz of inappropriate behavior while working as a teacher, a fabricated story designed to damage the Democratic ticket. An ODNI official described the effort: “Several indicators of manipulation” were identified, linking the video to Russian influence actors. This is just one of many attempts to use false information to influence voters and stir emotions.
Social media has become the battlefield of choice for these foreign adversaries. From false accusations to conspiracy theories, platforms like X (formerly Twitter) have become breeding grounds for disinformation. “Foreign actors could draw on the same type of tools they have been using in the pre-election period—especially information and cyber operations—and may also consider physical threats and violence,” warned an ODNI official. In this digital age, lies can travel faster and farther than ever before, making it nearly impossible to control the narrative once it’s set in motion.
The use of artificial intelligence (AI) has added a new layer of complexity to these influence operations. AI-generated content can appear highly convincing, blending seamlessly with real posts and making it difficult for even tech-savvy users to distinguish fact from fiction. As one official noted, some of these posts “are likely to be generated by artificial intelligence,” further blurring the lines between reality and disinformation.
The Threat of Post-Election Violence
While disinformation itself is dangerous, the real concern lies in what could happen after Election Day. U.S. intelligence officials believe that the period following the election—when results are being tallied and certified—will be especially vulnerable to foreign interference. “Foreign actors may perceive a window of vulnerability to push disinformation or foment or amplify protests and threats during the period between certification in the joint session of Congress on January 6,” warned one intelligence official.
The fear is that Russia and Iran, in particular, may seek to incite protests that could spiral into violence, especially if the election results are contested or close. In fact, intelligence reports have stated that “Russia and Iran are probably willing to at least consider tactics that would contribute to such violence.” This is especially likely if the results favor Kamala Harris, as both Russia and Iran have a vested interest in undermining her presidency.
In this dark scenario, protests fueled by disinformation could quickly turn violent. Foreign actors could seize on these moments of instability to escalate the situation. In 2020, we saw how quickly peaceful protests could turn into riots, and intelligence officials fear that the same could happen again—only this time, with more organized foreign involvement.
U.S. Government Response
The U.S. government is not standing idly by. Agencies like ODNI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) are working around the clock to monitor and counter these threats. Intelligence officials are releasing regular updates to the public, hoping that awareness will help prevent panic and confusion. However, they also acknowledge the limitations of their efforts. The vast scale and sophistication of these influence campaigns make it difficult to counter them entirely.
On the ground, local and state election officials have been working to secure voting infrastructure and prepare for potential disruptions. Still, officials warn that the public should brace for “disruptions” on Election Day and in the days following. CISA has already indicated that foreign actors may attempt to disrupt critical infrastructure, such as power grids, transportation systems, or election offices. “We’re going to see potentially some type of impact on a transportation system. We’re going to see a potential ransomware attack against a local election office,” one CISA official warned.
Despite these preparations, the U.S. intelligence community admits that its biggest challenge will be preventing disinformation-fueled unrest. In a recent declassified memo, the National Intelligence Council warned that foreign adversaries are “better prepared to exploit opportunities in the post-Election Day period.” These actors are likely to spread false narratives of election fraud or use cyberattacks to promote confusion about the results, especially in tight races.
The Broader Impact on U.S. Democracy
The most chilling aspect of this threat is the long-term damage it could inflict on American democracy. Even if foreign actors fail to incite widespread violence, their efforts to sow distrust could have lasting effects. Every fake news story, every conspiracy theory, and every fabricated allegation chips away at the trust Americans have in their electoral system. Over time, this erosion of trust could lead to greater polarization, more violent outbursts, and a weakening of the very foundations of democracy.
The 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the most contentious in modern U.S. history, and foreign adversaries are ready to exploit every moment of chaos. As one intelligence official put it, these actors are “committed to trying to undermine American democracy, stoke societal unrest, and help their preferred candidate.” While the U.S. government works to defend against these threats, the responsibility also lies with the American people to remain vigilant, critical of the information they encounter, and united in the face of external attempts to divide them.
The warnings from U.S. intelligence are clear: Russia, Iran, and China are prepared to exploit every weakness in America’s political landscape to divide, destabilize, and even incite violence. As Election Day approaches, these foreign powers are ramping up their efforts, hoping to undermine trust in the democratic process. While the U.S. government is taking steps to counter these threats, the real question is whether the American public will be able to resist the disinformation and divisive tactics aimed at destroying the very fabric of the nation.
ACZ Editor: This is scary as hell given the asymmetric nature of protests and riots in lower class black neighborhoods. Even a group of 4 or 5 protestors could have a substantial effect on the nation and it is easy enough to hire thugs to lead a few neighborhood residents to break windows and scream slogans. This is an inexpensive act that causes a great deal of instability. Will China, Russia and Iran fund something like this? It has happened before.