The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) recently published six critical takeaways from the Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military power, shedding light on the rapid modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), ongoing internal challenges, and the broader geopolitical consequences of China’s military ambitions. While corruption remains a persistent issue, the report underscores China’s continued military advancements across nuclear, naval, air, and space domains, as well as its focus on Taiwan.

1. Nuclear Expansion and Escalation Control

China’s nuclear force modernization remains one of the most significant developments outlined in the Pentagon’s report. The Department of Defense (DoD) estimates that China now possesses over 600 operational nuclear warheads, an increase from 500 in the previous year. This number is projected to surpass 1,000 by 2030, with ongoing enhancements across all three legs of China’s nuclear triad: land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and nuclear-capable bombers.

The report highlights China’s progress on multiple advanced technologies, including fractional orbital bombardment systems and hypersonic glide vehicles. Notably, Beijing is now regarded as having “the world’s leading hypersonic missile arsenal.” Additionally, China is investing in a “launch on warning” posture, referred to as an “early warning counterstrike,” where a missile launch by an adversary would prompt an immediate retaliatory strike before the initial attack lands. According to the Pentagon, China seeks to establish the capability to “inflict far greater levels of overwhelming damage to an adversary in a nuclear exchange.”

2. Improved Readiness and Combat Proficiency

The PLA has made significant strides in enhancing its combat readiness and operational proficiency across its various branches. The PLA Navy (PLAN) maintains its surface fleet at high readiness, with an emphasis on enabling a surge capacity to respond to regional crises. The PLAN’s submarine fleet has also improved its ability to remain deployed for extended periods while operating farther from Chinese shores.

The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) has undertaken major institutional reforms aimed at creating a modern, professional fighting force. Training exercises are increasingly conducted under what the PLA calls “actual combat conditions,” which simulate real-world battle scenarios. Similarly, the PLA Army (PLAA) has focused on improving the training standards for combined arms units, ensuring they can work cohesively during joint operations.

Meanwhile, the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) continues to refine its strike capabilities. The report notes that PLARF routinely conducts live-fire exercises targeting mock airfields, bunkers, and naval vessels, demonstrating readiness for potential conflict scenarios. As the Pentagon report states, these developments point to a military force not only expanding in size but also improving in terms of effectiveness and coordination.

3. Global Power Projection

One of the most striking aspects of the Pentagon’s report is China’s growing ability to project military power far beyond its borders. The PLA Navy, in particular, has developed capabilities for long-range precision strikes using land-attack cruise missiles launched from submarines and surface combatants. This significantly enhances China’s ability to operate beyond the First Island Chain, which includes Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines.

The PLA Air Force has also expanded its long-range precision strike capabilities, with bombers capable of hitting targets in the Second Island Chain without leaving Chinese airspace. Additionally, China is actively seeking to establish overseas military bases and logistics hubs. Countries reportedly under consideration for such facilities include Pakistan, the UAE, Cuba, Kenya, and Equatorial Guinea. Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner emphasized the scale of China’s ambition, stating, “The demand from the PRC for these things [overseas bases and facilities] is vast. They will take almost anything they can get globally. Their list of targets is very, very long.”

4. Defense Industrial Base and Self-Sufficiency

China’s defense industrial base is now among the most advanced in the world, enabling the rapid growth and modernization of the PLA. The PLAN is already the largest navy in the world, with 370 ships and submarines. According to the DoD, this number is expected to grow to 395 by 2025 and 435 by 2030.

Unlike the United States, which faces significant challenges in scaling up production of military equipment, China has achieved near-complete self-sufficiency in naval shipbuilding. This includes the production of engines, weapons systems, and advanced electronic equipment. The Pentagon’s report contrasts this efficiency with the struggles of the U.S. defense industrial base, highlighting China’s ability to rapidly produce and deploy military assets.

5. Endemic Corruption and Xi Jinping’s Crackdown

Despite its significant advancements, the PLA continues to grapple with corruption at multiple levels. In the second half of 2023 alone, at least 15 high-ranking military officials and executives from China’s defense sector were removed from their positions. These included senior leaders from the PLA Rocket Force and executives overseeing missile production.

The report suggests that these corruption investigations may have caused disruptions to China’s progress toward achieving its 2027 military modernization goals. However, the persistence of these crackdowns indicates Xi Jinping’s determination to maintain tight control over the PLA. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Chase stated, “Despite challenges, they continue to forge ahead with Xi Jinping’s national strategy.”

6. Focus on Taiwan and Regional Dominance

The unification of Taiwan remains the cornerstone of China’s military strategy. The Pentagon’s report underscores the PLA’s intense focus on preparing for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Military exercises conducted in 2023 featured extensive simulations of land, air, and naval attacks on Taiwan.

Notably, the PLA conducted the Joint Sword exercise in April 2023, which included an aircraft carrier simulating attacks on Taiwan for the first time. Despite these developments, the report highlights ongoing weaknesses in the PLA’s ability to conduct complex amphibious landings and urban warfare—both critical for a successful invasion.

Assistant Secretary Ely Ratner remarked, “To the extent that their particular goal is to be feeling ready and confident that they can execute a short, sharp invasion of Taiwan at acceptable cost, they’re not there today. They’re trying to get there…But it’s not clear they’re getting any closer than they were over the last couple of years.”

Broader Implications and Final Thoughts

The Pentagon’s report paints a complex picture of a military force that is simultaneously advancing and grappling with significant internal challenges. While corruption and structural inefficiencies persist, the PLA continues to grow in strength, readiness, and reach.

The CFR’s analysis emphasizes that while corruption scandals dominate headlines, the sheer scale and speed of China’s military advancements must not be underestimated.