Taiwan is rapidly building one of the largest drone forces in the world, hoping that innovation and swarms of unmanned systems can keep a Chinese invasion at bay—or at least make Beijing think twice.

From Red Beaches to Stealth Bays

Off Taiwan’s northeastern coast in Su’ao Bay, a trio of homegrown sea drones – including the stealthy Carbon Voyager 1 and explosive-laden Sea Shark 800 – demonstrated the island’s bold new defense strategy. With the Chinese military growing stronger by the year, Taiwan is racing to adopt asymmetric warfare tactics, focusing on drones that could turn its mountainous terrain and choppy waters into deadly obstacles for invading forces.

Unlike Russia’s ground-based invasion of Ukraine, any Chinese assault on Taiwan would involve crossing the 112-mile Taiwan Strait. Taiwan’s rocky coasts and dense jungles already offer natural defenses, but they aren’t enough against the world’s largest military. That’s where drones come in.

The Porcupine Strategy

Taiwan’s military and government refer to their evolving approach as a “porcupine strategy”—a way to make invasion so painful and uncertain that it becomes unthinkable. Central to this strategy is the use of drones: for surveillance, kamikaze strikes, coastal defense, and even swarm attacks.

“It doesn’t mean we need to build one drone for every one of theirs,” said Chen Kuan-ting, a ruling party lawmaker. “We need disruptive innovations. Something cheaper, something built for Taiwan’s terrain. That’s our advantage.”

President William Lai has declared his goal to make Taiwan the “Asian hub” for drone technology. The government launched the “Drone National Team” initiative in 2022 to create a homegrown industry that can produce both military and commercial drones—even under wartime conditions.

100,000 Drones and Counting

Taiwan is making good on that ambition. Its Ministry of National Defense has already ordered nearly 49,000 drones across five categories—from micro surveillance to medium-range attack platforms. A new government announcement adds another 50,000 drones, bringing the total to more than 100,000.

Defense Minister Wellington Koo confirmed that the army will establish its first-ever drone units, with similar efforts underway in the navy and marine corps. This includes repurposing older battalions into drone-focused operations and integrating unmanned surface vessels into maritime defense.

These efforts are supported by local manufacturers like Thunder Tiger and Century Minsheng, who are expanding production for both domestic defense and international markets. Taiwan’s drone export numbers are already climbing—from just 290 in 2023 to over 3,400 in the first quarter of 2025 alone.

Big Ambitions, Bigger Hurdles

But for all the energy behind the program, experts say Taiwan’s efforts still fall short of the scale needed for real wartime readiness. Peter Mattis of the Jamestown Foundation argues that producing “hundreds” is not enough.

“Ukrainian brigades go through 50 to 100 FPV drones a day,” said Yurii Poita, a Kyiv-based defense expert. “Ukraine plans to build 200,000 drones a month in 2025. Taiwan wants to build the same number in a year.”

An April report from the U.S. Naval Institute estimated that Taiwan’s current stockpile could support only four or five volleys in a full-scale war. Experts warn Taiwan needs to build drones at a rate it can fight with, not just stockpile for later.

Another challenge is supply chain dependence. Despite efforts to cut ties with China, many of Taiwan’s drones still rely on Chinese-made components, including batteries, GPS modules, and transmission chips. These parts are hard to replace, expensive when sourced elsewhere, and vulnerable to sanctions and espionage.

“We need to make the entire drone, not just parts,” said Chia-yu Chang of Avilon Group. “But honestly, nobody can do that right now.”

Jungle Warfare and Urban Defense

Defense analysts are urging Taiwan to go beyond just drone production and rethink battlefield tactics entirely. Lorenz Meier, a software executive who advises Taiwan’s drone sector, said the island’s geography—dense forests, rugged mountains, and urban sprawl—should shape the strategy.

“Retreat into the jungle, launch drones from the hills. Sitting on the beach will be hell for the enemy,” Meier said.

Others believe Taiwan hasn’t spent enough time planning for what happens after Chinese forces land. “A smart strategy has to consider tempo and terrain,” said Alexander Huang, chairman of Taiwan’s Council on Strategic and Wargaming Studies. “Just copying Ukraine or taking Pentagon advice isn’t enough.”

The race is on. U.S. Admiral Philip Davidson believes China could be ready to invade by 2027. That gives Taiwan little time to transform its drone ambitions into a battlefield-ready force.

Yet even in its current form, Taiwan’s strategy may be having an effect. As Defense Minister Koo put it, the goal is not to trigger war, but to prevent it: “It would be best if China wakes up every day feeling like ‘today’s just not the day to invade.’”

If Taiwan succeeds in creating a drone ecosystem smart enough, agile enough, and deadly enough to sow doubt in Beijing’s mind, it may change not only its own fate, but also the future of modern warfare. In this battle of machines and minds, Taiwan isn’t just building drones—it’s building a new way to defend freedom.

ACZ editor: Drones are an area where military doctrine is still be formulated. Assymetric warfare against even ships or advanced jet fighter could provide for an interesting war with unexpective results.