Taiwan is watching recent U.S. actions in Venezuela with unease, worried that China could one day try to do something similar to Taipei. The dramatic U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has sparked fears that Beijing may see a new model for dealing with governments it considers hostile. While the scenario is alarming, many analysts and officials believe it is unlikely to happen, especially given President Donald Trump’s clear warnings to China.

The concern began after the United States carried out a surprise military operation in Caracas that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The Trump administration justified the raid by citing narcotics trafficking, national security threats, and criminal networks tied to Venezuela’s leadership. U.S. special forces, supported by air power and cyber operations, carried out what was described as a highly complex mission.

The operation drew condemnation from China and other nations, with Beijing accusing Washington of violating international law and sovereignty. But beyond official protests, the raid set off intense discussion across Asia, particularly in Taiwan, where leaders and residents began asking whether China could attempt something similar.

Why Taiwan Sees Parallels With China

Taiwan’s fear is rooted in its unique vulnerability. The island has lived for decades under pressure from Beijing, which considers Taiwan part of China and has never ruled out the use of force to bring it under control. The capture of Maduro raised the question of whether China might try a targeted strike against Taiwan’s leadership rather than a full invasion.

These concerns are especially strong in Kinmen, a Taiwanese-controlled island just miles from the Chinese coast. Residents there have long lived with the reality of military tension. Local officials openly worry that modern warfare no longer requires massive amphibious landings and that precision strikes against political leadership could now be seen as a viable option.

Some in Taiwan Expressing Fear

Tung Sen Pao, a county councilor in Kinmen, openly warned that China could one day adopt a similar methodology to target Taiwan’s capital or presidential office. He noted that China has already rehearsed blockade scenarios and large-scale military exercises around Taiwan.

Taiwanese lawmakers also acknowledge the risk, even as they debate how serious it truly is. Wang Ting Yu, a legislator, said China has always had the intention to take Taiwan but lacks the ability to do so successfully. He argued that there is a significant gap between ambition and capability.

Ordinary citizens in Kinmen express a more resigned view. Many believe that whatever happens is beyond their control, even as military tensions continue to grow around them.

There are clear signs that China is increasing pressure on Taiwan. Beijing has ramped up military spending by roughly $100 billion per year over the past decade. Chinese forces regularly conduct large-scale drills around the island, including live fire exercises, simulated blockades, and joint air and naval operations.

Chinese military planners have also trained for years on replicas of Taiwan’s presidential buildings, and intelligence assessments point to 2027 as a key milestone when China aims to be capable of a decisive military victory over Taiwan. Chinese social media has openly discussed Venezuela as a possible blueprint, asking why Beijing could not act if the U.S. did.

At the same time, analysts note that China has thus far preferred coercion and pressure rather than outright war. Beijing continues to frame Taiwan as an internal matter while building legal, economic, and military justifications for future action.

Trump’s Message to China

President Trump has directly addressed fears that the Venezuela operation could encourage China. He has repeatedly rejected the idea that the two situations are comparable. Trump has emphasized that Venezuela posed a direct security threat to the United States through crime and drug trafficking, while Taiwan represents a political and historical issue for China, not a similar crisis.

Trump has also delivered a blunt warning to Chinese leader Xi Jinping. He said he would be very unhappy if China moved against Taiwan and made clear that he does not believe Xi would act while Trump is president. Trump has stated openly that China might consider such a move under a different U.S. president, but not during his administration.

This message is widely seen as a deterrent. Supporters argue that Trump’s willingness to use force, combined with his direct warnings, makes China think twice about taking extreme risks.

Opinion remains divided. Some analysts warn that the Venezuela raid weakens international norms and emboldens major powers to act aggressively in their own regions. Figures in the UK and Europe have said the lack of strong condemnation could encourage China or Russia to test similar tactics.

Others argue the opposite. They believe the Venezuela operation highlights U.S. military superiority and exposes the risks of such raids. Some Taiwanese observers point out that Chinese-made defense systems failed to stop the U.S. strike in Venezuela, which could undermine Beijing’s confidence.

Think tanks also warn that a strike on Taiwan’s leadership would likely backfire. Unlike Venezuela, Taiwan is a democracy, and any attempt to seize or kill its leaders would likely unify the population against Beijing and trigger a global crisis.

Ominous but Unlikely – At Least for Now

Taiwan’s fear that China could attempt a Venezuelan-style strike is real and understandable. The precedent is troubling, and China’s military activity adds to the anxiety. But most evidence suggests that such an operation is unlikely in the near term.

Longer term it is almost a certainly that China will make a move, but while Venezuela may be a model, is it not enough to encourage China to move prematurely.

Trump’s clear warnings, China’s awareness of the enormous risks, and Taiwan’s growing defensive posture all point toward deterrence rather than imminent action. The idea remains ominous, and it keeps Taiwan on edge, but for now it appears more like a shadow hanging over the region than a plan ready to be carried out.