For years global headlines claimed that China had become the dominant economic force in Africa. Its giant railways, large power stations and vast mining operations seemed to confirm that Beijing had overtaken the West across the continent. But new data shows a different reality. For the first time since 2012, the United States has overtaken China as Africa’s largest source of foreign direct investment. The shift signals a major change in global competition and reveals how both Washington and Beijing are fighting to secure the minerals that power modern technology.

The China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University accessed official government figures showing that the United States invested 7.8 billion dollars in Africa in 2023 while China invested 4 billion dollars. Researchers emphasize that the numbers are clear. The United States is now the biggest investor in Africa, even though China still plays a crucial and highly visible role.

This finding matches other assessments. The World Investment Report shows that when looking at investment stocks, which reflect the total value of foreign-owned assets, Europe and the United States continue to hold the largest cumulative presence in Africa. China’s investment stock grew rapidly from roughly 13 billion dollars in 2010 to more than 40 billion dollars in the 2020s, but it still remains far behind the transatlantic bloc.

The Rise of Overall Investment in Africa

Foreign investment in Africa surged dramatically in 2024. According to the United Nations Trade and Development agency, FDI inflows increased by 75 percent to reach a record 97 billion dollars. Even excluding a major urban development deal in Egypt, investment still rose 12 percent to 62 billion dollars. Nearly every region of Africa saw increases, with North Africa leading the surge.

Renewable energy projects, mining deals, construction activity and industrial development continue to drive investment growth. Countries such as Morocco, Tunisia and Namibia experienced strong gains in new projects.

China’s Long History of Investment Across Africa

China began increasing its investment footprint in Africa in the early 2000s. At that time its presence was small. By 2010, China’s investment stock remained only 13 billion dollars, below smaller Asian economies such as Singapore and Malaysia. But by the 2020s, China’s investments surged past 40 billion dollars. Chinese firms expanded into retail, services, manufacturing and major commodity extraction projects. Chinese-funded infrastructure such as railways, ports and energy systems became highly visible symbols of Beijing’s influence.

Much of this infrastructure, however, is not technically Chinese-owned investment. As economists explain, many projects are financed by Chinese loans to African governments. The governments, not China, own the assets. Because of this difference between lending and investment, observers often overstate China’s true investment footprint.

Beijing also built influence through diplomacy and education. China has hosted hundreds of African delegations, provided large numbers of scholarships for African students and sponsored cultural programs. Surveys from Afrobarometer consistently show that African citizens view China’s influence positively. In the most recent surveys, roughly two-thirds of respondents said China’s influence was somewhat positive or very positive.

What the United States Is Doing Differently

The United States’ recent investment surge is driven by the US International Development Finance Corporation, known as the DFC. The agency was created in 2019 during President Trump’s first term. The DFC states directly on its website that it was established to counter China’s presence in strategic regions.

Critical minerals are at the center of the American strategy. These include lithium, cobalt, tin, tantalum and tungsten. They are essential for smartphones, electric vehicles, advanced batteries, aerospace technology and artificial intelligence systems. Washington sees Africa’s mineral reserves as vital to securing stable supply chains.

One example is Trinity Metals in Rwanda. The company secured a 3.9 million dollar DFC grant to expand three mines producing tin, tantalum and tungsten. Trinity chairman Shawn McCormick said, “The US government has been very supportive of what we’ve been doing, to look at bringing that supply chain directly to the United States.” The company now ships tungsten from Rwanda to a processing facility in Pennsylvania. It also sends tin to a smelter in Pennsylvania. McCormick insists the US government did not pressure the company to ship minerals to American facilities. “It’s our decision as players in the commercial market,” he said.

McCormick also highlighted that Trinity follows high standards of labor and safety. “We have shown that there is a way to produce these materials in a conflict free, child labour free way that is professionalised,” he said. He added that the company pays taxes, respects communities and creates jobs.

Another American-led example is ReElement Africa, a subsidiary of American Resources. It is building a major critical minerals refinery in South Africa’s Gauteng province. CEO Ben Kincaid said, “It was extremely rewarding to realise that we could partner with countries in Africa to put refining facilities alongside the resource,” which he says helps Africa capture more value and build an industrial base.

The United States is also signing diplomatic deals tied to minerals. A peace agreement brokered by Washington and Qatar between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo included mining contracts for American companies such as KoBold. KoBold, backed by Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates and other major investors, secured access to cobalt, copper and lithium deposits that have long been dominated by Chinese firms.

Changes in US Policy Toward Africa

Washington’s approach to Africa has changed significantly. The United States has shifted away from traditional foreign aid and toward commercial deals and investment partnerships. After dissolving USAID, the US embraced a policy more aligned with China’s “trade instead of aid” model.

However, other American policies have hurt its image. During President Trump’s first term several ambassador posts in Africa went unfilled. The administration also imposed a travel ban that blocked nationals of several African countries. In 2025 the administration unveiled a new travel ban that again targeted African nations, and it introduced a visa bond of up to 15,000 dollars for African visitors. A new 100,000 dollar fee for H-1B visas also made it more difficult for skilled Africans to work in the United States. The African Growth and Opportunity Act expired in 2025, despite widespread requests from African leaders for renewal.

These policies caused frustration and strengthened China’s narrative that Western countries do not see Africans as equal partners.

Some experts argue the United States missed opportunities. Professor Lee Branstetter at Carnegie Mellon University said, “Had the current administration not indiscriminately slapped tariffs on large numbers of African countries for no apparent reason, the United States would probably have been in a better position to benefit from African disaffection with Chinese projects.”

African Leaders Strike a Balance

African leaders are using US China competition to their advantage. As Gabon’s president told Washington during a summit, “You are welcome to come and invest; otherwise, other countries might come instead of you.” African governments have been careful to avoid choosing sides. They are encouraging both American and Chinese investment, as well as new interest from India, Brazil, Japan and the United Arab Emirates.

Economist Sepo Haihambo warns African nations not to expect the United States to negotiate in Africa’s favor. “To expect the Americans to show up and negotiate and propose clauses that are in Africa’s best interests on Africa’s behalf would be unrealistic,” she said. She argues that African countries should consider production sharing agreements, joint ventures and local equity participation to capture more value.

How China Sees the Shift

China views Washington’s recent moves as an opportunity. Beijing continues to present itself as a reliable partner that treats African nations as equals. It highlights its educational programs, high-level summits and expanding construction portfolio. Chinese leaders also use American policies such as travel restrictions to strengthen their message.

China remains Africa’s largest trading partner, and its influence continues to grow through ports, highways, parliament buildings and major government projects. Analysts note that unless the United States expands its involvement beyond minerals and invests in security, governance and long-term development, China will continue to hold an advantage.

The rivalry between the United States and China across Africa is intensifying. The United States has regained the lead in foreign investment, but China remains deeply entrenched through trade, infrastructure and diplomacy. African leaders are leveraging competition to secure better terms and attract investment from multiple global powers. Whether the shift benefits Africa will depend on how well nations negotiate and how seriously foreign partners commit to long-term development.

ACZ Editor: From our perspective, this is the ultimate sign of respect for African countries. Trump is treating them like adults, not children, he is doing more adult negotiating and less in giveaways. Trump is resisting what has been called “the soft bigotries of low expectations.” This may be less persuasive than giveaways by China in the short term, but in the long term is better for everyone.