In a high-stakes briefing to the House China Select Committee, lawmakers were presented with sobering insights into the potential consequences of a U.S. war with China over Taiwan. This briefing, informed by detailed war games conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), examined the circumstances of a Chinese invasion, possible military outcomes, and the geopolitical aftermath of such a conflict.

A Looming Threat

China has been operating its defense industrial base on a “wartime footing,” boasting a shipbuilding capacity 230 times greater than that of the United States. Analysts project that by 2027, China will be fully prepared for a military invasion of Taiwan. While the U.S. has historically avoided committing to Taiwan’s defense explicitly, the briefing assumes that U.S. forces, alongside Taiwanese and Japanese allies, would intervene.

War Game Outcomes

The war games simulated a Chinese invasion of Taiwan set in 2026. Despite Taiwan’s defenders successfully repelling the invasion with U.S. and Japanese assistance, the cost to all parties was staggering:

• U.S. losses: 10–20 warships, two aircraft carriers, 200–400 warplanes, and over 3,000 troops killed within three weeks.
• Chinese losses: 90% of amphibious fleets, 52 major warships, and 160 aircraft.

The conflict was projected to result in over 10,000 casualties and significant destruction of military assets, emphasizing the devastating human and material costs for all involved.

Key Recommendations and Challenges

The report stressed several critical points:

1. Immediate Decision-Making: Unlike the incremental U.S. involvement in Ukraine, a conflict in Taiwan would demand an immediate decision to intervene. Delays of even two weeks could result in irrecoverable losses.
2. Operational Dependence on Japan: U.S. forces would need to operate through Japan, as South Korea has refused to permit combat missions from its territory. Strengthening U.S.-Japan diplomatic ties is essential.
3. Increased Munition Stockpiles: The U.S. must ramp up production of anti-ship missiles and smaller, cost-effective naval assets to prepare for a potential conflict. Current stockpiles of key munitions, such as anti-ship missiles, would be depleted within a week of fighting.
4. Taiwan’s Military Strategy: Taiwan must pivot from building expensive, large ships to investing in smaller, more survivable vessels and submarines.

The simulation highlighted the immense challenges of providing military aid to Taiwan. Unlike U.S. support for Ukraine, arming Taiwan would require direct involvement of U.S. forces due to China’s missile capabilities that could block supply routes.

Geopolitical Stakes

The geopolitical stakes of a war over Taiwan extend beyond the battlefield. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command head Adm. Samuel Paparo described the Indo-Pacific as the “most stressing theater,” with China representing the U.S.’s most capable adversary. Beijing’s massive naval capacity, modernization efforts, and consistent military rehearsals signal its readiness for potential conflict.

The war games underscored that Taiwan’s ability to resist would play a crucial role in global perceptions of Chinese and U.S. power. For China, a failure to secure Taiwan could severely undermine domestic legitimacy, while a successful invasion would challenge U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Aftermath and Uncertainty

The briefing left lawmakers grappling with unsettling questions. What would U.S. policy look like under President-elect Trump, who has wavered on unconditional support for Taiwan? Would North Korea seize the moment to strike South Korea, further destabilizing the region?

China has consistently framed its military buildup as a response to U.S. policy on Taiwan, accusing Washington of undermining its “core interests.” Diplomatic relations remain strained, with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun recently refusing to meet with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, citing disagreements over Taiwan policy.

The Road Ahead

The CSIS report ultimately suggests that conflict is not inevitable, though Taiwan’s autonomy remains a flashpoint. As tensions rise, the U.S. faces critical decisions about its military posture, production capabilities, and alliances. While the report underscores the devastating costs of war, it also calls for urgent measures to deter aggression and prepare for worst-case scenarios.

If conflict does occur, it will reshape the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific—and perhaps the world.