As the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia forge ahead with the AUKUS alliance to build a new generation of nuclear-powered submarines, Russia and China appear poised to counter with a shadowy partnership of their own. Recent warnings from Admiral Samuel Paparo of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command underscore the stakes: Moscow, with its history of pioneering submarine technology, may be on the verge of transferring this expertise to China and even North Korea. Such a move could fundamentally challenge American dominance in the depths of the Pacific Ocean.
Modern submarines are engineering marvels, combining cutting-edge stealth, weaponry, and operational endurance. As Admiral Paparo put it, Russia is uniquely positioned to “provide submarine technology to the PRC that has the potential of closing American undersea dominance.” For the United States, whose naval superiority has been a linchpin of its global strategy, the implications of such a transfer are deeply unsettling.
Russia’s submarine expertise is rooted in its Cold War-era investments, when the Soviet Union raced to outmatch the West in naval technology. Modern Russian designs like the Yasen-class nuclear-powered submarines embody this legacy, offering unparalleled stealth and strike capabilities. In contrast, China’s fleet—while vast—is technologically outdated. Most of its submarines are diesel-electric, which require frequent surfacing to refuel, limiting their range and effectiveness. Even as China ramps up production of nuclear-powered subs, such as the Type 093 and Type 094, it remains years, if not decades, behind the United States and Russia. If Moscow provides China with advanced designs, however, this gap could close alarmingly fast.
This potential transfer would not occur in a vacuum. It is part of a larger, more troubling pattern of collaboration between authoritarian regimes. Admiral Paparo noted the growing “transactional symbiosis” between Russia, China, North Korea, and even Iran, where each nation fulfills the others’ needs. For example, Beijing has quietly but significantly bolstered Russia’s war effort in Ukraine by supplying machine tools and semiconductors—components critical to modern weapons manufacturing. In exchange, Russia could provide Beijing with the stealth technology needed to turn its submarines into silent hunters beneath the waves.
China’s industrial capacity adds a chilling dimension to this alliance. While Russia struggles with aging shipyards and resource shortages, China’s state-of-the-art facilities could mass-produce advanced submarines at a pace unmatched by either the United States or its allies. As Admiral Paparo warned, “Where one is resource poor, the others fulfill those resources. Where one has operational needs, the others are fulfilling those needs.” This collaborative effort could even extend to Beijing building submarines for Moscow, reinforcing both nations’ fleets and presenting a united front against Western maritime forces.
The potential strategic impact of such a partnership is profound. Enhanced Chinese submarines could significantly alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Submarines are the ultimate stealth platforms, capable of slipping past naval defenses to strike critical targets. With Russian technology, China’s subs could gain the ability to remain submerged for extended periods, evading detection by even the most sophisticated U.S. sonar systems. Armed with advanced missiles, these vessels could threaten American aircraft carriers, naval bases, and even mainland cities. The Pacific, once dominated by the U.S. Navy, could become a far more contested domain.
Such a scenario would also have serious implications for U.S. allies in the region. Nations like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, already under pressure from China’s aggressive territorial claims, would face an even greater threat. Beijing’s submarines could patrol contested waters with impunity, intimidating regional governments and undermining the credibility of American security guarantees. As Paparo observed, this is “a dangerous environment” that adds “complexity” to an already volatile geopolitical landscape.
Yet, questions remain about the durability of a Sino-Russian alliance. Historically, relations between the two powers have been marked by mutual suspicion and competing ambitions. The Sino-Soviet split during the Cold War was a stark reminder of how quickly ideological and strategic differences can divide even the closest partners. While the current alignment between Moscow and Beijing appears strong—driven largely by their shared opposition to U.S. influence—it is far from guaranteed to last. Andrew Shearer, Australia’s Director-General of National Intelligence, cautioned against overly optimistic scenarios, declaring that “the idea of driving wedges between these two is fanciful.” Nevertheless, he acknowledged that a change in leadership or geopolitical priorities could one day disrupt their partnership.
For now, however, the West must grapple with the immediate reality. The United States and its allies face a rapidly evolving security environment where adversaries are not only closing technological gaps but also working together to magnify their strengths. “Without China,” one NATO official observed, “Russia would not be able to continue the war [in Ukraine].” The same principle applies to the seas. Without Russian technology, China’s navy remains a blunt instrument; with it, it could become a scalpel capable of surgical strikes against U.S. interests.
The prospect of Russian stealth submarine technology in Chinese hands should serve as a wake-up call. Admiral Paparo has called for the U.S. to deepen its regional partnerships, enhance intelligence-sharing, and invest in advanced deterrent capabilities. Japan and South Korea, long viewed as regional rivals, must be encouraged to collaborate more closely. Meanwhile, the United States must accelerate its own submarine development to stay ahead in the technological arms race.
The shadows beneath the ocean’s surface are growing darker. As Russia and China draw closer together, their combined capabilities could undermine decades of U.S. naval dominance. While the full extent of their collaboration remains uncertain, one thing is clear: the balance of power in the world’s oceans is shifting, and the United States must adapt to meet the challenge. In this new era of maritime competition, complacency is not an option.
ACZ Editor Notes: We believe that China has already thought about this. They would have long since stolen the technology (much China has done to us) for anything that Russia has, and if Russia is not already cooperating to assist in the transference of technology and capability, the pressure is mounting. China’s assistance to Russia with respect to the war in Ukraine is being fully leveraged against Russia.